After 15 years of independence Namibians seem set to stick with the old adage — better the devil you know. They look certain to keep the ruling South West African People’s Organisation (Swapo) in charge for another five years when they go to the polls on November 15 and 16. The only difference in these presidential and parliamentary elections will be the name on the ballot paper: instead of placing their mark next to Sam Nujoma, Hifikepunye Pohamba will be the Swapo frontman.
The Congress of Democrats (COD), DTA of Namibia, Monitor Action Group (MAG), Namibia Movement for Democratic Change (NMDC), National United Democratic Organisation (Nudo), Republican Party (RP), South West African National Union (Swanu), Swapo and the United Democratic Front (UDF) will all contest the general elections, with only seven contesting the presidential election.
Swanu and the NMDC have not fielded candidates for the presidency. NMDC, Nudo and the RP are all newcomers to the race. Nudo and RP were part of the DTA in the last presidential and National Assembly elections, while the newly-formed NMDC was forced to change its name from the Caprivi National Democratic Party, as the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) charged that the name promoted tribalism.
Even without Nujoma, the founding president of Namibia, as a drawcard, Swapo will retain its ruling party status and perhaps even reach its target of 60 seats in the 72-seat National Assembly. It currently has 55 seats.
With Swapo’s stronghold in the populous north of the country, coupled with its vast financial resources (the party is spending up to N$6,2-million on the election campaign), there is a sense of apathy from the other contenders.
Apart from the capital, Windhoek, and a few select areas throughout the country, no serious campaigning has come from the official opposition DTA and the most prominent contender COD. Although the COD election manager, Tsudao Guirirab, dismisses any notion of political apathy, he does admit that the party has not done much campaigning, mainly because of financial constraints.
“In the last election in 1999, the COD was the new kid on the block and we received 10% of the vote. I believe that we will not get any fewer than that this time around,” he said. He is optimistic about the Caprivi region where voters traditionally vote for the opposition, and feels that this election will be no different.
The DTA has been severely crippled after it split in three with the formation of the RP and Nudo last year. No one was able to explain the party’s manifesto. This level of disorganisation seems prophetic of the party’s future.
For all the parties the key issues appear to be land reform, job creation, education and health. Uplifting the poor features prominently with the NMDC and COD, which emphasise that poverty leads to crime, Aids and other social problems such as alcoholism and drug abuse. Namibia has an unemployment rate of 35%.
Corruption is also high on the NMDC’s agenda, which it claims is the root of the huge disparity between the rich and the poor in Namibia.
Voter turnout, according to a researcher at the Institute of Public Policy Research, Graham Hopwood, will remain between 60% and 70%, because supporters of the three new parties will want to make an impression and Swapo has a new presidential candidate for the first time since independence.
Hopwood does not believe the controversy around Hidipo Hamutenya will result in a voter stay-away. Hamutenya was one of three Swapo candidates vying to succeed Nujoma. However, when he emerged as a strong favourite over Nujoma’s preferred choice of Pohamba, he was unceremoniously removed from the post of minister of foreign affairs three days before the Swapo central committee meeting where the candidate was elected.
Pohamba went on to win the Swapo party vote.
With more than 900 000 registered voters and an anticipated high voter turnout, Hopwood predicts that Swapo will fall short of its target of 60 seats in the National Assembly, but will retain a two-thirds majority.