As Palestinians go to the polls on Sunday to elect a successor to Yasser Arafat, senior members of Hamas have revealed that a long-term ceasefire may well follow.
The revelation follows a major escalation in the Hamas campaign of firing missiles at Israeli targets in and around the Gaza Strip. According to the Israeli army, Palestinian militants have fired more than 100 mortars and rockets from Gaza in the last two weeks. In the same period last year, only 10 projectiles were fired.
The escalation can be seen as a bargaining ploy to demonstrate to Israel and the expected winner of today’s election, Mahmoud Abbas, better know as Abu Mazen, the importance of a Hamas ceasefire.
It marks a turning point in Hamas’s strategy. After four years of leading violence against Israel, it now plans to concentrate on politics. Leaders will be seeking guarantees that they will not be hunted down by Israeli security forces and that incursions into Gaza by the Israeli army will end. There has also been a change in the rhetoric of Hamas supporters to a more conciliatory tone.
Yehiya Musa, the Hamas leader in the southern Gaza town of Khan Yunis, said: ”The struggle with Israel is in stages. Each one is different. If Abu Mazen comes to us with proposals about how to deal with this stage, we will look at them very seriously.”
Hamas first began discussing a move into politics two years ago. Those discussions led to the ceasefire arranged by Abbas when he was appointed Prime Minister in 2003.
Hamas maintained the ceasefire despite Israeli military action, but a member in Hebron took independent action to avenge the death of a friend and blew himself up on a bus in Jerusalem in August 2003. Israel retaliated by assassinating the most moderate Hamas leader, Ismail Abu Shenab, beginning a cycle of violence which is only now abating.
According to Ghazi Hamed, editor of the Hamas weekly newspaper, al Risala, the group has suspended its use of suicide bombers; the last one occurred in August last year.
”There has been a deliberate policy of no suicide bombers, mainly because they don’t want the international criticism. They have concentrated on more imaginative attacks in Gaza, such as digging tunnels under Israeli positions. They have found that these attacks are condemned less,” he said.
Hamas’s first democratic efforts were well rewarded. In December, in what were thought to be 26 strongholds of the mainstream Fatah party founded by Arafat in the West Bank, Hamas won control of nine local councils, with Fatah winning 14.
”Hamas has very good relations with Abu Mazen, and realise there is nothing to fear from being represented in the PLC [Palestinian Legislative Council] and shaping Palestinian policy there,” said Hamed. The policy has also been influenced by Sharon’s disengagement plan. While some in Hamas believe that Israel should be harried all the way out of the Gaza Strip, the dominant view is that Israel should be allowed to withdraw peacefully.
Hamas emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood in 1987. Known for its attacks on Israel, it continues to operate social and educational charities. Its charter says it wants to restore Muslim control over Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, but in recent years it has said it would be willing to accept an Israeli and Palestinian state on that territory.
Hamas has no candidate in Sunday’s elections, partly because it knows it cannot win and partly because it would not want the responsibility of winning.
Zeyad Abu Amer, a Gaza PLC member and likely minister in Abu Mazen’s next administration, said that when Hamas first started suggesting it wanted to embrace politics two years ago it was unclear if the group was genuine, because its statements were couched in intransigent language.
”They were hit hard by the Israelis and they became more flexible. Also they do not want to be permanently stigmatised during this atmosphere of ‘war on terror’. One day they might wake up and find themselves the next target,” he said.
Hamas has reached a point where ”it wants to get a position where it can define and determine Palestinian policy”, he said.
Until now Hamas rejected the Oslo accords that set up the Palestinian Authority. Its decision, which has yet to be declared, to participate in the PLC elections, signifies a partial acceptance of the accords.
There is a mood of optimism among the political elite of Gaza. But all agree the price of disappointment will be heavy if Abu Mazen fails to deliver.
”If after two years of negotiating, there is no result, Hamas and Fatah will rise up with arms again,” said Hamed. – Guardian Unlimited Â