South African President Thabo Mbeki is due in Kinshasa on Tuesday to push the fragile peace process in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), but few believe elections will take place in June as scheduled.
The country is struggling to reach the objectives of the December 2002 peace accord, which ended five years of war in the huge country between various factions backed by other neighbouring states.
The transitional government headed by President Joseph Kabila, which includes former rebels, is supposed to step down after the first democratic and free elections in 40 years.
”Everyone knows it is impossible to hold elections by June 30,” said a foreign diplomat, who declined to be identified. ”The Constitution has not been approved and electoral lists have not begun to be drawn up.”
A formal announcement of a postponement of the polls in the face of international pressure and the aspirations of the Congolese is likely to bring unrest.
Remarks by the head of the Independent Election Commission, Apollinaire Malu, who indicated voting should be completed by October instead of June, sparked a demonstration in Kinshasa on January 10 and clashes with security forces in which at least four people were killed.
But one day later, Malu’s deputy, Basengezi Katitima, said June is ”unrealistic”.
”If the Senate gives us the Constitution today and the National Assembly gives us the electoral law, we could try to adjust our schedule and hold the polls in June, as long as we have the instruments we need,” he said.
”But, unfortunately, it’s the politicians who are dragging their feet,” Katitima said. ”The schedule depends on these two documents.”
Meanwhile, Jean-Pierre Bemba, head of the former Ugandan-backed rebel Congo Liberation Movement, one of four vice-presidents named under the peace accord, has threatened to quit the government by January 31 if no progress is made in distributing top military and civilian jobs ahead of the polls.
Bemba said on Friday, after a three-hour meeting with Kabila, that they have smoothed out their differences ”on all the questions necessary to advance the transition”.
”But how long will it last?”, asked one diplomat, saying that the election campaign has effectively started and rival politicians could be tempted to spark violence.
Another Kinshasa-based analyst said: ”If an election were held tomorrow, not only would its result be disputable but nothing would ensure its respect.
”However, the international community is keeping up strong pressure for the transition timetable to be maintained, and negotiations have resumed, which is a good sign.”
Mbeki, architect of the 2002 accord, was last in Kinshasa on January 12, when he had eight hours of talks with Kabila and other members of the DRC’s transitional government.
Since then, the presidents of Gabon and the neighbouring Congo have paid informal visits, and the African Union has said it will name a high-level official to keep up mediation efforts.
The east of the country, meanwhile, remains largely in the hands of former rebels. Unrest among the many militias and ethnic groups has been used by some politicians and ex-rebels as a reason for delaying the vote.
Several thousand United Nations peacekeeping troops are deployed in the east as well across the rest of the country. They are currently engaged with DRC troops in a campaign to disarm the militias and stabilise the region.
On Saturday, Said Djinnit, the AU’s top security official, said the pan-African body has begun consultations with member states on a planned peacekeeping force for the east of the DRC.
Djinnit added that the AU is also looking at ways of funding the force, and expressed gratitude for an offer from the European Union.
The force will be tasked with disarming mainly ethnic Hutu rebels who fled to the east of the DRC from neighbouring Rwanda after taking part in the genocidal massacres of 1994 in that country.
In December, Kabila’s government accused Rwanda of sending troops across the border to hunt down the rebels, though Kigali denied it. — Sapa-AFP