So 2004 has drawn to an end, and the whole cycle starts again. The budget, the extraction, the increases (or decreases), the clients, and the forecasting. Another 12 months. And media owners asking, “So how do you see the year ahead?” And agreeing with you no matter what you say!
What I thought we might look at are the trends. What is getting hotter and more prevalent, and equally important, what seems to be taking a backseat, falling off the map, and down the lavatory.
Well, here’s some good news. Rate increases are not really an issue anymore. No longer will clients have to budget 10% to 12% (at best) more, and get nothing back. One can see TV taking a bit of an increase — demand is there, after all, and so maybe 5% or 6% will be levied. Ditto for most of the other media, falling into the 5% to 7% range. But there will be those who fall inside of this — the PBS vernacular radio stations, some newspapers, (The Citizen took no increase for the second time in the last few years) and some outdoor formats. Overall, keen negotiating could certainly contain any increases to a schedule to around 5%, if not less.
From a creative point of view, maybe it’s just me, but there seems to be a pre-occupation with doing a South African version of the “Whazzup” beer commercial. I really believe that there is no magical formula that can be applied. The public somehow get triggered by a commercial and adopt a phrase or action wholeheartedly. The last really big one in this country was “Yebo Gogo”. But following “Whazzup”, we now have “Yebo Yes”, “Hola: gimme summa?”, “Yello Summer”, and “Se-ri-ous!”.
But enough of creative. We’re supposed to talk media — and “hot” at the moment? Well, TV with its domination of our lives and the amount of time we spend with it (over 3 hours a day on average) will never not be hot. But am I alone in thinking that Reality TV has run its course? The shows are now starting to blur, to develop a sameness, to all be variations on a theme. Bring on the next generation of shows.
In South Africa I think one of the hottest opportunities for advertisers currently is outdoor. The contractors are more flexible and creative, innovation is matched by good availability, and new impactful, tactical, and less expensive opportunities are presenting themselves continually. So suburban visual pollution it may be, but it certainly is working for a lot of advertisers.
Not so hot is the daily newspaper market, particularly the English medium papers. Sure Daily Sun has soared, but other titles are static to declining big-time. And the demise of ThisDay is just plain depressing. Up front the industry was dubious about its chances of success, and severely criticised for being prophets of doom. But predictions were right. How anyone could believe that a publication selling less than 20 000, with no marketing budget, printed and distributed effectively by competitors, over-priced in ad rate terms (‘cos it didn’t hit the circulation projections) and dramatically under-funded after launching 6 months late, had a snowball’s chance in hell, I don’t know!
2005? One imagines that the momentum built up in 2004 will continue for at least the first quarter. But growth has been phenomenal, and there are potential storm clouds gathering. The poor export market, high personal debt levels, unemployment, and rocketing oil prices all carry bad omens with them. But a buoyant economy, great retail sales, high growth, controlled inflation and low interest rates, I suppose, point in exactly the opposite direction. The year is bound to be interesting.
Harry Herber is group managing director of The MediaShop Group