South Africa’s CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage costs) was up 4,3% year-on-year (y/y) for metro and other areas in December, compared with 4,6% y/y in November, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
CPIX was down 0,2% month-on-month (m/m) in December compared with a 0,6% m/m rise in November.
Headline consumer prices — the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas — was up 3,4% y/y in December from a 3,7% y/y increase in November.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, was up 4,7% y/y in December, compared with 4,6% y/y in November.
The CPIX, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for its inflation target, was expected to remain at 4,6% y/y. The range of forecasts for CPIX was from 4,5% y/y to 4,8% y/y.
The SARB’s inflation target is to keep the y/y rate for CPIX within a range of 3% to 6%.
The lower annual rate at December 2004 compared with November 2004 can be explained by decreases in the annual rates of change for:
- The CPI for medical care and health expenses, for which the rate decreased from 9,1% at November 2004 to a lower rate of 8,4% at December 2004.
- The CPI for transport, for which the rate decreased from 8,4% at November 2004 to a lower rate of 6,8% at December 2004.
- The CPI for food, for which the rate decreased from 1,9% at November 2004 to a lower rate of 1,5% at December 2004.
However, these decreases were partially counteracted by an increase in the annual rate of change for the CPI for housing, for which the rate increased from 1,1% at November 2004 to a rate of 1,4% at December 2004.
From November 2004 to December 2004, the CPI for the historical metropolitan areas decreased by 0,2%, while the seasonally adjusted index increased by 0,2%.
The annual increase of 3,4% in the CPI for the historical metropolitan areas is mainly due to annual increases in the price indices for transport (+1%), medical care and health expenses (+0,6%), education (+0,4%), food (+0,3%), household operation (+0,3%) and housing (+0,3%).
These annual increases were partially counteracted by annual decreases in the price indices for clothing and footwear (-0,1%) and recreation and entertainment (-0,1%).
The annual percentage change in the CPI excluding interest rates on mortgage bonds (CPIX) for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas is 4,3% at December 2004 (that is, the CPIX at December 2004 compared with December 2003).
The official average annual inflation rate is 1,4% for the year 2004, 4,4% lower than the corresponding average annual inflation rate of 5,8% for the year 2003, while it is 7,8% lower than the corresponding average annual inflation rate of 9,2% for the year 2002.
The 2004 annual average was the lowest annual average consumer inflation since 1963, when it was also 1,4%. The lowest annual average after 1945 was 1,1%, reached in 1959.
The official average annual CPIX inflation rate for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas for the year 2004 (that is, the average CPIX for the year 2004 compared with that for the year 2003) is 4,3%, which is 2,5% lower than the corresponding average annual CPIX inflation rate of 6,8% for the year 2003 and 5% lower than the corresponding average annual CPIX inflation rate of 9,3% for the year 2002. — I-Net Bridge