While basking in the apparent success of Iraq’s national elections on Sunday, United States officials still face some tough hurdles in fashioning an exit strategy from the country the US invaded nearly two years ago.
Lagging efforts to train local security forces, simmering communal tensions and the daunting reconstruction needs of the war-ravaged country all cloud prospects for any early American pull-out from Iraq.
US President George Bush, while hailing Sunday’s vote for a National Assembly as a ”resounding success” and a ”great and historical achievement”, made it clear Iraq has a long and bloody road ahead of it.
”Terrorists and insurgents will continue to wage their war against democracy, and we will support the Iraqi people in their fight against them,” Bush said in brief remarks at the White House.
US officials refuse to give a timetable for the withdrawal of the country’s 150 000 troops, with Bush insisting they will stay until Iraq can defend itself against what he calls homegrown or foreign terrorists.
But the administration acknowledges that efforts to train Iraqi security forces to take on the insurgents have been slow and plagued by problems of leadership, desertion and equipment.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said again on Sunday that about 120 000 Iraqis have been trained, including 50 000 police officers. But critics such as Democratic Senator Joseph Biden say the overall number is more like 14 000, only a third of them battle-ready.
Democratic Senator John Kerry, who lost the November presidential election to Bush, said the administration has to take urgent action to convince Washington’s European and Arab allies to help out with training.
”I will say unequivocally today that what the administration does in these next few days will decide the outcome of Iraq,” he told NBC television on Sunday. ”And this is — not maybe — this is the last chance for the president to get it right.”
But the question remains of how much active support Washington will be able to drum up from countries such as France and Germany that bitterly opposed the March 2003 invasion.
Training for the is likely to be on the agenda when Rice travels to Europe later this week on a fence-mending tour ahead of Bush’s trip later in February.
Rice expressed the hope on Sunday that the high turnout in Iraq’s elections and the bravery shown by Iraqi voters will generate a new spirit of international cooperation.
She told the Fox News Sunday television programme that any country supporting democracy ”has got to be heartened by what we’ve seen today and has got to realise that it is our obligation to continue to spread freedom and liberty across the globe”.
While seeking to bolster Iraq’s defence capabilities, the Americans will be treading a fine political line as the new assembly forms a government, drafts a new Constitution and prepares for definitive polls in December.
They will likely have to deal with a majority Shi’ite Muslim government expected to emerge, with analysts split whether it might come under the influence of neighbouring Iran and speculation rife whether it might ask US forces to leave.
Another worry is what will happen to the minority Sunni Muslims, many of whom stayed away from the polls out fear or in response to boycott calls. Some analysts said this could leave them disaffected and deepen the insurgency.
But Washington has made clear its hope the Shi’ites and Iraqi Kurds will bring the Sunnis into the new government and the constitutional drafting process. US officials said the response so far has been encouraging.
Beyond the military and political challenges facing the US before it heads for the exit door in Iraq is the economic reconstruction task that has been largely overshadowed by security concerns.
Only a fraction of the $18-billion in aid pledged by the US has been disbursed for the country, which is still plagued with an unemployment rate ranging up to 40%, according to some estimates.
Sunday’s election success came at an opportune time for Bush, who is expected to ask the US Congress for $80-billion to fund operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the lion’s share destined for Iraq.
But Anthony Cordesman, of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told a panel discussion last week: ”Elections don’t fix economies. We do not see coming out of this any of the elements of economic stability as yet emerging that underpin the election.” — Sapa-AFP