African countries have agreed on the rules by which they would like to play a new United Nations game. Four countries have emerged as candidates for the two permanent seats on the UN Security Council that Africa is requesting.
Libya can hardly be regarded as a serious candidate, notwithstanding its new-found international acceptability. The other three — Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa — will not be able to avoid a knock-down, drag-out battle.
The African foreign ministers, who adopted the continent’s reform wishes at the African Union’s Executive Council meeting in Addis Ababa this week, remained mum about the actual candidates. Nevertheless, all three are in the starting gates and bookies are saying the most likely race is between Nigeria and South Africa.
After years of playing it coy, South Africa has publicly declared its candidacy in a note to diplomatic missions in Pretoria. This after the AU’s special committee of 15 foreign ministers meeting in Swaziland last month opted for the model requesting a pair of African permanent seats.
South Africa immediately emerged as the clear favourite, much to the delight of Japan and Germany, who want it to join the group of favoured candidates for these powerful positions with the least possible delay. If the selection for two African seats is left to a continental vote, then Nigeria is most likely to get the nod with South Africa.
Most decisions about representation on UN organs are left to the regions. But there is no precedent for the UN Security Council. Diplomats from the five current permanent members of the body — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — are convinced their governments will want a substantial say in a selection as important as this. Which is what Egypt is banking on.
A decision by, for example, the General Assembly would still go South Africa’s way. But Egyptian envoys say their country has a larger and better international image than Nigeria.
The game, of course, supposes that the UN does select the model closest to African aspirations.