Michael Tsai points to a large map on the wall of his office in Taiwan’s national defence ministry. It is dotted with red symbols representing dozens of Chinese missile, air and naval bases within easy shooting range of the capital, Taipei, and other major Taiwanese cities.
Whatever Beijing may say about its peaceful intentions, Tsai suggests, this map illustrates the reality — and the daunting scale — of the military threat that lurks 160km to the west, across the treacherous waters of the Taiwan Strait. As deputy defence minister, it is Tsai’s job, and that of the 300 000 members of the Taiwanese armed forces, to monitor China’s 2,1-million-strong People’s Liberation Army ”every day, every hour”.
But with China’s military spending increasing by double digits each year, the task of deterrence is growing harder. ”If Beijing keeps building up its strength, our analysis is that, by 2008 to 2012, the balance of power will tip towards China,” Tsai said.
While Taiwan’s air force pilots and ”counter-forces” are better trained and technically equipped than their Chinese equivalents, according to Tsai, this advantage is threatened by China’s investment in new forms of electronic warfare.
”More than 700 ballistic missiles are deployed across the coastal provinces of China. We expect that to increase to 800 by 2006, including about 100 long-range missiles capable of delivering a warhead more than 12 000km.”
China also has about 80 submarines, many obtained from Russia, and is expanding its military horizons. Last December a Chinese submarine penetrated the so-called ”first island chain” — a notional maritime defence line running south from Japan to the Philippines — and sailed close to the United States naval base on Guam in the Pacific.
”This is one of the reasons why their leaders’ claim that China would emerge as a peaceful power is not matched by deeds,” Tsai says. Within five to 10 years, China could overhaul Russia as the second largest military power after the US, he adds.
Another reason is China’s new ”anti-secession law” that has empowered the PLA to use non-peaceful means to prevent any definitive Taiwanese move towards outright independence.
Beijing maintains it wants a negotiated settlement with Taiwan, albeit on the basis of the ”one China” principle accepted by Britain in Hong Kong in 1997, but which most Taiwanese reject. The new Chinese law was denounced by up to one million Taiwanese in a street protest last Saturday, and condemned by the US and Japan, on whose deliberately ambiguous support Taiwan’s policy of military deterrence relies.
Like other Taiwanese politicians, Tsai stresses the possibly doleful international repercussions should China attempt to subdue by force what it regards as a renegade province.
”Every day 600 to 900 vessels pass through the Taiwan Strait,” Tsai says. ”Most are Japanese and foreign ships, mostly carrying oil. There are also more than 1 000 commercial flights in the zone every day.”
And Taiwan, despite its relatively small population of 24-million people, is a major global exporter, with an economy ranked 16th in the world.
If the cold war turns hot, or if China mounts a blockade of the island, Tsai predicts, the result could be a big international crisis, potentially drawing in the US Pacific fleet’s carrier groups, as happened briefly in 1996.
The EU’s proposal to replace its arms embargo on China with a restrictive code of conduct is officially seen in Taipei as sending the wrong signal to Beijing. Privately, officials are scathing about what they believe is the reckless pursuit of economic self-interest by some states, notably France.
Given Taiwan’s predicament, it has no option but to arm itself as best it can, Tsai says. China’s recent actions mean that a long-delayed multibillion-dollar arms purchase from the US is now more likely to be approved by the Taiwanese Parliament. ”The US arms sale is for self-defence. We’re not going to attack them [China]!” he says. — Â