Deputy President Jacob Zuma, the facilitator of the Burundi peace process, will be going to that country to press the political actors to maintain the already slipping electoral process.
Peace efforts were buoyed this week by the oldest Burundian liberation movement, the Forces of National Liberation (FNL), led by Agaton Rwasa, agreeing to begin negotiations with the interim government led by Domitien Ndayizeye and to cease hostilities. The move is of huge symbolic value to the country as it stutters through a convoluted electoral process.
While the FNL is estimated to have about 1 000 armed cadres, it is indubitably the father of the Hutu liberation movements. Both the Forces for the Defence of Democracy (FDD), led by Pierre Nkurunziza, and the political party, Frodebu, spring from it. Most importantly, the FNL is the only group still fighting in Burundi. And it was doing so as late as last weekend.
For more than two weeks, Tanzania’s President Benjamin Mkapa did the negotiating spadework with the rebels to end Burundi’s ethnically driven civil war that raged for more than a decade and cost more than 300 000 lives. Mkapa, as vice-chairperson of the regional peace initiative on Burundi, also did much of the heavy sledging in persuading the FDD guerrillas to lay down their arms.
Both Nkurunziza and Rwasa found Zuma’s tough negotiating style as facilitator a little rich for their blood.
His response to the rebels coming aboard indicates that he has not softened his stance. ”The decision of the Great Lakes Regional Heads of State Summit to declare the Palipehutu-FNL a terrorist organisation still stands until such time that they convincingly demonstrate seriousness about participating in the process of ushering in of peace and democracy in Burundi,” said deputy presidential spokesperson Lakela Kaunda.
”The facilitator has always indicated his willingness to assist the FNL to join the peace process, should they practically demonstrate seriousness and readiness in this regard.”
Rwasa’s men have given a commitment to neither disrupt the electoral process nor seek any delay. The fact that the FNL made and stuck to a similar undertaking before Burundi’s successful constitutional referendum in February did much to enhance its credibility.
Aldo Ayello, the European Union envoy to the Great Lakes, this week said ”the peace process in Burundi is beyond the point of no return. But electoral delays are proving costly to the people on the ground.
”The administration of the country is breaking down by the day. Corruption is at an all-time high as politicians who believe they have no chance of returning after the elections line their pockets. The budget deficit is getting out of control — so much so that Burundi risks losing its status with the International Monetary Fund as a highly indebted poor country.”
Analysts say not even Zuma’s arm-twisting can move the process ahead until Parliament has passed the necessary electoral legislation. The delay is currently in the Senate. But that should be obviated when a 30-day deadline for the Upper House to propose amendments expires at the weekend.
The target of July 1 for the inauguration of the new president now appears fanciful. The country has to have local, communal and parliamentary elections before the legislature can elect the president. This is exasperating for Zuma and his team.
”He knows by now that Burundians have to be pressured to negotiate, pressured to sign and pressured to implement any agreement,” says senior researcher Jean-Marie Gasana of the Institute for Security Studies.
Analysts concur, nevertheless, that Burundi’s peace train is now securely enough on track to negotiate delays — particularly with the FNL aboard.