The stakes are high for British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Thursday’s election, as a loss or narrow win by his Labour Party may end his career, while a triumph will define him as one of Britain’s political masters.
Arch-rival Michael Howard also faces a defining moment, as a third successive defeat for his main opposition Conservatives — once the strongest force in British politics — would trigger the demise of his leadership and prompt a major shake-up of the party itself, the experts predicted.
Similarly, failure by the smaller opposition Liberal Democrats to progress will throw into doubt the political future of their leader, Charles Kennedy.
“There is a lot there at stake for Blair,” said Philip Cowley, a political expert at Nottingham University.
“The nature of the campaign has really changed his power base in the party. It has been clear over the last four weeks that Blair is no longer the appeal that Blair once was,” Cowley said.
The premier’s reputation has suffered irreparable damage due to his decision to back the United States-led invasion of Iraq.
Hoping to boost his appeal, Blair teamed up with popular Finance Minister Gordon Brown — the man most likely to succeed him — during a month of campaigning. The premier, who turns 52 on Friday, also took the unusual step of pledging to retire at the end of a third term if Labour is re-elected.
“It is going to be impossible for Blair to move Brown or in any way move against those who regard themselves as Brown-ites,” said John Curtice, a political scientist at the University of Strathclyde, in Glasgow.
“To a degree, power and authority have already slipped,” he noted.
Most opinion polls predict that Labour will maintain a three-figure majority in Parliament, similar to the 161 seats it currently holds, which would enable Blair to remain in the top job until he decides to step down.
Such a victory would propel Blair into the pantheon of modern British political giants, alongside former Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher, who won three successive elections from 1979 to 1987.
Anything below a 60-seat majority, however, would be bad for Blair, forecast Cowley, adding: “Anything below 40, and I think he would have to go very soon.”
Howard’s career also hangs in the balance as voters cast their ballots, with a result expected early on Friday morning.
The Conservatives are forecast to win about 33% of the vote — unchanged from their position eight years ago and a disappointing outcome for a party that governed Britain for 18 years until 1997.
“The interesting question for the Tories is what happens if they get another pasting,” said Cowley.
“They could start to have a very serious self-examination of what they are, what they stand for, who they speak for,” he said.
If the Conservatives gain 20 or 30 extra seats, thus eroding Labour’s majority, Howard would likely stay on as leader while the party grooms a successor, experts said.
As for the Liberal Democrats — who are riding higher than ever before in opinion polls at just more than 20%, thanks in part to their opposition to the Iraq war — failure to make significant in-roads would spell trouble for leader Kennedy, who has been criticised for lacking charisma.
“If they do towards the top end of what the polls are saying, then he is probably going to stay,” said Curtice.
“If they were to do less well … then there will be pressure for him to go,” he predicted. — AFP