The impact of climate change on Africa in 30 to 40 years will be as significant as that of malaria and Aids, the chief scientific adviser to the British government said in Johannesburg on Monday.
”For Africa as a whole, climate change is one more stress. In 30 to 40 years’ time, climate change will be as great as the other stresses,” said Sir David King.
Global warming due to carbon-dioxide emissions is the biggest global challenge of the century, he said.
South Africa, like China, has enormous coal reserves and will continue using them. The focus for South Africa, therefore, should be on capturing and storing carbon emissions.
South Africa is already seeing ”very big changes” in rainfall patterns due to global warming.
King said climate change is not just a political issue, but also a cultural one.
Part of the problem is the use of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) such as 4x4s in cities. Such vehicles use up to three times as much petrol as a standard car.
”We need to put fiscal processes in place to discourage people using SUVs.”
Modern buildings also need to be made more energy efficient. The most recent addition to London’s skyline, the ”Gherkin”, was designed to use half as much energy as any other building, said King. It is self-heating and built around a ”solar chimney”.
Carbon-dioxide levels have risen from 260 to 379 parts per million (ppm) in the post-industrial era and are increasing by 2ppm annually, King said.
Mount Kilimanjaro’s ice cap, which has been there since the last ice age, will probably last another 15 years, he said.
He quoted research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, according to which 8 000 square kilometres of that country’s ice caps have already melted.
”What is currently happening to our globe hasn’t happened for 50-million years.
”This unprecedented rise in carbon-dioxide levels will lead to increased desertification and changes in weather patterns.”
King said greater understanding and ”serious discussion” is needed about the matter.
King, who was born in Durban and studied at the University of the Witwatersrand, is in the country to promote Zero Carbon City, the British Council’s awareness campaign on global warming.
He was due to meet Minister of Science and Technology Mosibudi Mangena later on Monday.
Guy Midgley, a systems ecologist at the South African National Biodiversity Institute, said of King’s prediction of the impact climate change would have on Africa: ”Hell, I hope he’s wrong. There’s enough to be worried about.”
Although the United States SUV market ”dwarfs” that of South Africa, there is a sense of people ”living large” today.
”We want to try to engender in people a sense of living within limits. We live large these days,” Midgley said.
Although South Africa produces less than 2% of the global total of carbon-dioxide emissions, it is the biggest emitter in Africa.
The big international culprits are the US, Europe and new giant China.
”We’re small fry on a global stage,” he said.
Introducing legislation to reduce emissions could impact negatively on economic growth, said Midgley.
”We don’t want to limit economic growth; it’s driven by energy requirements. We’re in a catch-22 situation.”
Eskom has instituted an exploratory investigation of wind power in the Western Cape, and a private investor is looking at rolling out the exploitation of wind power in the same region.
He said computer models — which need to be regarded with caution — have predicted global temperature increases of between two and five degrees Celsius, depending on policies over the next 10 to 20 years. — Sapa