In one of the world’s poorest countries, scarred by centuries of autocratic rule, few would expect a free election, still less a change of government.
But though the first results will not be declared until Saturday, Ethiopia’s opposition parties are claiming a surprise victory in what international observers say is the fairest poll the country has ever seen. The main opposition party, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, says it has won in most of the constituencies where the votes are counted.
”The trend so far clearly indicates that the CUD would emerge as the winner, with sufficient seats to form a government,” said the party’s vice chairman, Berhanu Nega.
Ethiopia’s ruling party said it had won just over half the 547 parliamentary seats in Sunday’s vote, though it conceded the opposition made massive gains, winning a third of the seats. The ruling party held nearly all the seats in the last parliament.
The prime minister, Meles Zenawi, has led the country since 1991, when he overthrew the Marxist dictatorship that in turn ousted the feudal rule of Emperor Haile Selassie. Mr Zenawi, one of two African heads of state on Tony Blair’s Commission for Africa, has pledged greater democracy and this election is regarded as a test of his commitment.
This vote was the first time foreign observers had been invited to witness an Ethiopian election. The EU, the African Union, and the Carter Centre, in Atlanta, Georgia, which is concerned with human rights, each sent observers.
”For the first time in history the majority of Ethiopian voters were presented with choices when they went to the polls,” the Carter Centre said. ”We believe Ethiopia has made tremendous strides towards democracy in the last several months including more open debate, greater political participation, large rallies and enormously high voter turnout on election day.”
Ethiopia was never colonised, except for the occupation by fascist Italy, but its present is better known than its proud history. Since the famine of 1984 Ethiopians have struggled to feed themselves, and the country has gone to war with Eritrea. Peace with that neighbourwas a divisive electoral issue, with the opposition pushing for a tougher line on the border disputes.
Land ownership is also contentious. The opposition parties favour ending the state monopoly on ownership, freeing farmers to trade land. The ruling party claims that state ownership protects farmers. But the state’s control of land gives it greater political clout in the countryside.
The opposition is thought to have made its major gains in urban areas, including the capital, Addis Ababa.
Ethnicity was also an issue at the election. Mr Zenawi is from Tigray, while the CUD draws support from the Amhara ethnic group, who traditionally ruled Ethiopia. The prime minister has accused the opposition of fomenting ethnic hatred, comparing his opponents to the advocates of genocide in Rwanda.
”The Ethiopian opposition is following the same trend to create havoc and hatred,” he said in a television address.
The opposition has been accused of racial slurs against Tigrayans in the ruling party.
The lobby group Human Rights Watch claimed recently that the Ethiopian authorities had exploited the concerns about an armed rebellion to justify the torture, imprisonment and harassment of opponents in the southern region of Oromia.
The human rights group said Oromia’s ruling party, part of Mr Zenawi’s coalition, accused its critics of involvement with the rebel Oromo Liberation Front so as to stifle political dissent. The government denied the accusations.
Twenty-five million Ethiopians are eligible to vote. Preliminary results are expected tomorrow with official results due on June 8. – Guardian Unlimited Â