The Congress of South African Trade Unions’ general strike on Monday could be politically damaging for the federation while offering workers no tangible benefits, say analysts.
”Cosatu might be left with egg on its face if the strike is not well supported, and it could lose further support,” said Dr Azar Jammine, chief economist at Econometrix.
Cosatu is actually ”barking up the wrong tree” with its call for a mass stayaway, he added.
”The reason for unemployment is not just greed on the part of business but rather a huge lack of employable skills by a large section of the population.”
The economy is increasingly moving away from industries employing large numbers of unskilled labour, such as agriculture, mining and manufacturing, towards more skill-intensive services such as information technology, telecommunications, transport and financial services, Jammine said.
”The real answer to reducing unemployment is not to go out and protest and waste one’s energies on this, but rather to try to encourage appropriate education and training and development of skills,” he said.
”That’s what’s going to get people off the streets.”
Johan Zietsman, policy executive for labour and social development at the SA Chamber of Business, agreed: ”Business fails to see how participating in the strike will help unemployment.”
Labour analysts Gavin Brown said it was difficult to tell what impact Monday’s strike will have on labour and the economy, but it could potentially damage Cosatu’s credibility.
”Last time they tried to do this… it was a damp squib and they were humiliated. Unless they pull off a massive event they will just be further marginalised.”
The federation has suffered a decline in membership to about 1,7-million now, down from about 1,9-million in 2000.
Cosatu’s previous call for mass action in October 2002 received a lukewarm response. Analysts said about 15% of workers heeded the call for a two-day stayaway to protest against the privatisation of state assets.
At the time Cosatu disputed this, saying 60% of its members participated.
According to Brown, ”The last time they had a really impressive stayaway was about 10 years ago.”
Monday’s strike, he said, would probably receive the most support from clothing industry workers in Cape Town and mining and retail workers in Gauteng.
However, it was generally agreed that the strike would not be well-supported.
Said Jammine: ”There is not a definite and tangible benefit that people striking are going to try to obtain.”
This was seconded by Zietsman: ”How many people will be prepared to lose a day’s pay over someone else’s concern?”
Cosatu is calling on both the employed and unemployed to protest job losses, poverty, working conditions such as casualisation and racism in the workplace.
Instead of getting people to willingly stay away from work, Zietsman said the federation might target public transport, mainly minibus taxis.
”They are going to use public transport to try to manipulate people who want to come to work. In that way they will strengthen their participation rate,” he said.
Jammine warned that although the strike would not have much effect on the economy in the short-term, the long-term implications should not be ignored.
”Business must take note of the fact that the poor in South Africa are getting quite disgruntled with the manner in which business seems to be benefiting and enriching itself whilst a large proportion of the country are without work and finding it difficult to survive.”
Analysts agreed there was much at stake politically for Cosatu. Jammine said the strike could be seen as ”grandstanding” ahead of the African National Congress’s national general council meeting starting on Wednesday.
”They could be trying to make a point because the ANC has muted labour market flexibility and deregulation of small business,” he said.
Cosatu president Willie Madisha, however, has denied the strike is a challenge to the ANC.
Brown warned the strike could turn into a rally in support of former deputy president Jacob Zuma.
”There’s a danger it could become a vehicle for a pro-Zuma show of force.”
Since Zuma was sacked, he has received a large show of support from Cosatu members. But Cosatu’s general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi said last Thursday it would be ”very sad” if the strike was hijacked by Zuma’s supporters.
The issues Cosatu is protesting against were all raised before Zuma was sacked following the outcome of the fraud and corruption trial of his financial advisor Schabir Shaik which found the two men had a ”generally corrupt” relationship.
It would only be possible to determine the economic impact of the strike once it was over. ”The country produces around R4,9-billion of economic output a day so after Monday we would have to calculate losses according to this,” Zietsman said. – Sapa