Analyst are divided on what effect Jacob Zuma’s retention of the deputy presidency of the African National Congress and his resumption of party activities will have on his bid for the ANC presidency in 2007.
While some believe his dismissal as deputy president of the country not only sounded the death knell for his political career and his support within the tripartite alliance, others feel his retention of his party position is the life raft he needs.
”If he is acquitted [on the two charges of corruption he is facing] and if there is no change in ANC policy, then he will definitely be the next ANC president,” said Steven Friedman, the director of the Centre for Policy Studies.
But taking into account these two big ”ifs”, Friedman predicted that should Zuma manage to become president of the ANC, it would clear his path to Tuynhuys.
Following a heated exchange between Zuma loyalists and other party members during a plenary session of the ANC’s national general council (NGC) in Pretoria on Thursday, Zuma was reinstated to the party’s structures.
Earlier in June, the ANC’s national working committee accepted Zuma’s request not to participate in party structures pending the outcome of his corruption trial.
Thursday’s victory would enable him to mobilise his support base in the ANC, actively campaign, and more importantly, would keep him in the race for presidency, pending the outcome of his trial.
But, Dr Dirk Kotzé of the Department of Political Sciences at the University of South Africa, believes this to be an unlikely scenario.
Kotzé said Zuma’s dismissal from the executive meant the end of his run for presidency.
”His trial is expected to last a long time and could finish just before the party election in December 2007. That won’t give him enough time to build his constituency in Luthuli House,” he said.
Also, Zuma’s current support base would be further eroded if the newly appointed deputy president of the country, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, proved herself a natural successor.
Kotzé said Zuma’s current support is not necessarily for him as a person, but as someone who is seen as able to ”stand up” to Mbeki in government.
Zuma’s dismissal has also severely weakened the position of his supporters in the SA Communist Party and the Congress of SA Trade Unions. Any candidate who proves him or herself ”an alternative to Mbeki” will quickly gain these votes, Kotze said.
Judith February of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa said it is not ”all over” for Zuma, but she says he has a tough road ahead of him.
”He is immensely popular, especially to the left of the alliance, but could he maintain the support through the slow grind of the legal process?” she asked.
However, Zuma was clearly a very ambitious man with his eyes still firmly set on the top job.
”He won’t go down without a fight.”
Nevertheless, she said the battle played out in Pretoria at the NGC is not so much between Mbeki and Zuma, as it is between the ”old and the new”.
”Mbeki has very clearly drawn a line in the sand and wants to transform the ANC from a liberation movement to a modern party. This is creating tensions between the old and the new.”
Zuma will also have this to contend with as he plans his next move, she said.
Zuma could be out on ANC’s payroll
Meanwhile, the ANC is to consider paying Zuma for his role as second in command of the ruling party. This position has not traditionally been a salaried post.
But Zuma is without an income — except for a pension derived from his former position as the nation’s deputy president and previous state representative positions he held since 1994.
ANC national chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota said that the issue would be dealt with by the national executive committee in due course.
Meanwhile Lekota said Zuma had never been ”gagged” — as suggested by some of the media — by the national working committee of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress.
As the party struggled to deal with the strong support for Zuma on the floor of the national general council — the policy making conference being held at the University of Pretoria until Sunday — Lekota said that Zuma himself had requested that he be suspended from party activities until the end of the trial.
The decision by the national working committee to accede to his request had not been accepted by the national general council and thus he was free to carry out party work.
Lekota reported that Zuma himself had told delegates during the council closed session that he had made the request to be suspended from the national working committee.
But strong support from delegates to the council was displayed to allow Zuma to participate in all party activities. This has been widely viewed as a challenge to the leadership of President Thabo Mbeki who axed him — with the support of the national working committee.
In a protracted spin exercise by Lekota — viewed as a strong contender to lead the party from 2007 he — said at a media briefing on Friday afternoon that it was misleading to have suggested Zuma had been gagged. In contrast, the council had felt that it would ”not grant his request” to be suspended, Lekota said in his explanation of events.
Asked how the council had come to this conclusion to allow Zuma to operate freely within the party despite facing charges — and despite having been released as the nation’s deputy president — he replied: ”On the basis that one is always presumed to be innoncent until proven guilty.
”He has not been found guilty as such. The view of the council is he is going on trial but we proceed from the view that he is innocent until proven guilty,” said Lekota.-I-Net Bridge and Sapa