Before breathing a sigh of relief at rebel leader John Garang being sworn in as vice-president of Sudan, analysts were pointing to the difficulties that lie ahead. The peace brokered is a narrow one: a bilateral arrangement between the northern government of Omar el Bashir in Khartoum and Garang’s Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement in the south.
As we reported earlier this year, a more inclusive Convention for a Democratic South Africa-style arrangement would have been preferable. But it was not attainable as parts of the vast desert country followed the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement example and took up arms to gain Khartoum’s attention.
The highest profile of these conflicts is in Darfur in the west. Unable to trust its soldiery in this neglected region, the government unleashed local militia, the Janjaweed, against the separatist rebels. The downside of deploying irregulars is controlling them — a lesson Khartoum has learned in spades.
The real victims have been the more than one million displaced people of Darfur and the families of the 200 000 dead.
Recently, the two Darfur rebel groups signed yet another agreement with the Sudanese government at the end of the fifth round of peace talks. The three-page “declaration of principles” contains broad commitments, such as respecting the unity of Sudan and upholding democracy, and also proposes “an effective devolution of powers” to regional authorities, with Darfur’s people assured a role in all levels of government. More talks are scheduled to begin at the end of August.
The way Garang explained it on his latest visit to South Africa, the Sudanese government of national unity is hoping for a settlement in Darfur by osmosis. This would see the peace dividends from the end of the north-south conflict wash into the neglected areas in the west and the east. The problem is that those dividends will not start flowing until there is peace in Darfur or, at the very least, until Khartoum manages to rein in the Janjaweed.
For starters, the $1,7-billion promised by the United States at the pledging conference in Norway earlier this year is conditional on a Darfur settlement. In all, $4,5-billion was raised at that conference — about half of what the World Bank says will be needed over the next three years to rebuild Sudan.
Sudan should be able to raise $5-billion from the 320 000 barrels of oil it is pumping daily. As this increases to 600 000 barrels a day, Sudan will become increasingly better placed to finance its own reconstruction.
Its neighbours — Kenya, Chad and Uganda — are all bracing for the economic spin-offs of peace. Kenya, a key player in the settlement, is making a case for oil, mainly in the south, to be moved to its terminal in Eldoret 1 000km away, rather than the 16 000km to Port Sudan.
Uganda will get an immediate dividend too. The north-south peace signals the end of the tit-for-tat game played with the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) that has plagued both Uganda and Sudan, with an 18-year insurgency that has displaced more than a million people. It has also seen thousands of children kidnapped to become soldiers or sex slaves.
Khartoum aided the LRA operations in southern Sudan because Uganda was lending support to Garang. Now collective attention will be given to crushing the LRA.