South Africa recorded a deficit of R1,017-billion for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in July after a R1,33-billion surplus in June, according to the latest customs and excise figures released on Wednesday.
The cumulative deficit for the first seven months of the year was R7,966-billion versus a shortfall of R2,957-billion over the same period last year.
The South African Revenue Service said aircraft to the value of R265-million were included in the import statistics for July.
Commented Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec: “The figure is less than I expected. It certainly shows that we don’t have a current account problem. I think overall the number will be good for the bond market and the rand and it does not affect equities. It is a good figure given that we had high oil prices in July.”
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group, said: “It is worse than what we expected — we expected a surplus. We still have to go through the numbers, but I suspect the increase in the oil price probably has something to do with it. I don’t think it will affect the markets — because the number is so volatile, it is important to look at it over a period, over a quarter or so.”
The figure is roughly in line with expectations, said George Glynos, market analyst at Econometrix Treasury Management.
“It doesn’t change much,” he said. “The current account still remains truly in deficit territory and while, at the moment, this is being adequately financed through capital inflows, it does render the rand vulnerable to any portfolio outfows from South African financial markets. I am expecting market reaction to the figure to be neutral.” — I-Net Bridge