/ 26 September 2005

Analysts sceptical about Porsche-VW tie-up plans

The surprise announcement by German luxury sports car maker Porsche that it plans to buy a stake in Europe’s biggest car maker Volkswagen sparked scepticism among investors and analysts, triggering a sharp sell-off in both companies’ shares on the stock exchange on Monday.

Germany’s financial watchdog, BaFin, also said it would take a close look at the dossier, since VW’s shares had risen sharply prior to the announcement, a possible sign of insider trading.

Porsche had announced on Sunday that it plans to take a stake of around 20% in VW in a move that would help shield Europe’s biggest car maker from a hostile takeover.

VW shares initially opened higher on the news on Monday, rising by €0,89 or 1,7% to €52,75. But they soon fell back in profit-taking, hitting an intraday low of €50,15, down 3,3% on the day.

Porsche shares were also sent into free-fall by the announcement, since the acquisition could cost the luxury sports car maker around three billion euros ($3,6-billion) and observers were sceptical about the industrial and strategic logic of the move.

In early afternoon trading Porsche shares were down 8,9% at €617,15.

Porsche and VW have close historical ties — their roots can traced back to the same family, the Porsche family.

But the two had never been seen as real tie-up partners, given the big differences in their products: VW, as its very name denotes, is primarily a mass-producer of cars “for the people”, while Porsche’s flashy sports cars are targeted to the rich.

Nevertheless, Porsche chief executive Wendelin Wiedeking insisted on the industrial logic of the tie-up.

“Porsche is taking this decision because VW is now not only an important development partner for Porsche, but also a significant supplier for approximately 30% of Porsche’s sales volume,” Wiedeking said.

Porsche’s Cayenne sports utility vehicle, which accounts for around one third of the sports car maker’s overall sales, was developed in partnership with VW and closely resembles VW’s own 4×4 vehicle, the Touareg.

And the two car makers are also collaborating on a hybrid motor.

“Making this investment, we seek to secure our business relations with VW and make a significant contribution to our own future plans on a lasting, long-term basis,” Wiedeking said.

However, analysts were less certain about the strategic necessity of the move, which appears more aimed at preventing VW from being taken over by hostile predators.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said that while it was “reasonable” that Porsche should want to raise its stake in VW to underpin cooperation, the price of the acquisition — based on VW’s share price on Friday, the deal could cost Porsche up to three billion euros — could be too high.

JP Morgan analysts were similarly sceptical.

The move “dilutes the Porsche story and raises questions about the business model”, they said, and added: “We also perceive some risk of reversal of restructuring momentum at VW.”

For their part, politicians were happy about the deal.

“I am happy that Porsche, an investor which thinks long term, is taking a stake in Volkswagen,” said economy minister Wolfgang Clement.

The regional state of Lower Saxony, which holds an 18,2% stake in VW’s voting shares, also welcomed the deal as “a great opportunity for Germany as a carmaking country”.

VW is currently protected from hostile takeover by the so-called “Volkswagen Law”, which prevents any single shareholder from amassing a majority in the car maker’s voting capital.

But that law has come under fire from Brusssels and could soon be abolished.

There have been fears that VW could therefore become an easy target for foreign predators once that happens.

Indeed, rumours that United States billionaire Kirk Kerkorian had been buying up shares in the car maker had sent VW shares surging late last week.

The German financial watchdog, BaFin, said it would investigate the movement of VW shares in case any insider trading had taken place prior to Porsche’s announcement. – AFP