The succession battle in Zanu-PF enters a new phase as power blocs in the ruling party in Zimbabwe jockey for influence on the newly created Senate — elections for which are likely to take place next month.
President Robert Mugabe ensured his central committee sanction an early poll last Friday, a move seen as an acknowledgement by the 81-year-old leader that he needs to limit dissent. The 50 seats that will be directly elected through constituencies will heighten tension in Zanu-PF that have formed around the presidential ambitions of Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa on the one hand and Mugabe’s confidant and former army general Solomon Mujuru, whose wife Joyce is favoured by the party old guard.
Mugabe will appoint the remaining 16 in the 66-member Senate from various interest groups. The Mujuru camp currently holds sway in the legislature and would not want to drop their guard and allow Mnangagwa’s young turks to control the Senate.
Political analysts and civil society actors view the creation of the second chamber of Parliament as an instrument for Mugabe to mollify party loyalists. ”I don’t think it was designed as a legislative arm. It’s for the old boys — a retirement home. It will be dominated by the old guard because the minimum age for participation is 40,” Dr Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst based at the University of Zimbabwe, told the Mail & Guardian.
In a bid to avert potentially divisive contests, Zanu-PF has also decided to break with tradition and has dropped primary elections to determine its candidates for the senate. Instead, the party says it will reach consensus on its nominations through its structures.
Mnangagwa is likely to call the shots in Masvingo, Midlands and parts of the Matabeleland provinces, while Mujuru can rely on support from Harare, Mashonaland and Manicaland. Both camps, however, wield some influence in each other’s strongholds. The old guard can rely on party luminaries like chairperson John Nkomo, secretary for the commissariat Elliot Manyika and Vice-President Joseph Msika to do their bidding.
There have been suggestions that Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa plans to introduce another raft of constitutional amendments, which would, among other things, allow parliament to elect the president in 2008, instead of citizens going to the polls.
This has upped the stakes for both factions within Zanu-PF ahead of the Senate poll.
Mnangagwa, long considered Mugabe’s heir apparent, suffered a setback last week with the expulsion from Zanu-PF of one of his chief backers, Jabulani Sibanda, the war veterans’ chairperson. Sibanda and six provincial chairpersons were suspended from the party for their part in the infamous Tsholotsho meeting designed to ratchet up support for Mnangagwa’s bid for the vice- presidency of Zanu-PF last year. Sibanda told the M&G that he is being victimised and had never been called to a hearing. ”We went to war to fight a white minority regime but now there is a black minority regime we have to fight within the party,” he said.
Sibanda’s expulsion, Zanu-PF insiders close to him say, would add impetus to challenging Mugabe’s grip on power. But Masunungure believes that it would take the equivalent of a political tsunami to turn the tables on the old guard. ”If Zanu-PF splits, it means Mnangagwa splitting. Mujuru will remain within Zanu-PF because he cannot break from a party that he is firmly in control of. Should Mnangagwa break away, he might as well write his political obituary. He can only struggle and survive within the Zanu-PF framework.
”Towards the 2008 presidential elections, there is going to be a low-level civil war within Zanu-PF. The tension will be real and evident and will only subside after the party elections to choose a candidate is over,” Musunungure said.