After weeks of rumour and intrigue Germany finally got what everyone had expected on Monday — a grand coalition led by Angela Merkel. But as the week progressed there were growing doubts about how long such a coalition would last and what, if anything, it would achieve.
Before last month’s bitterly contested election, Merkel campaigned on a manifesto of radical change. But instead of a clear victory — as the opinion polls had predicted — she ended up with one of the worst results in her party’s history. Voters had shied away from her neo-liberal vision and had been frightened off by comparisons to former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher. It now seems likely that Germany’s new chancellor will be forced to dump many of her old commitments.
Her Christian Democrats had, for example, campaigned to reform Germany’s inflexible labour market, opposed Turkish membership of the European Union, and promised to bring back nuclear power. She had also held out the prospect of better relations with Washington, after the disastrous standoff between Gerhard Schröder and United States President George W Bush over the Iraq war.
But with the Social Democrats now holding eight Cabinet portfolios — including almost all of the big ones — Merkel will be forced leftwards.
This week political experts pointed out that there were some areas where the two big parties could agree. Both want to reform the country’s cumbersome federal system, which makes rapid decision-making either difficult or impossible. They are also likely to be able to cut a deal on sales tax — which Merkel wants to increase to reduce Germany’s high additional wage costs.
The divisive issue of Turkey has, meanwhile, been settled. Merkel opposes Turkish membership of the EU and wants a ”privileged partnership”, but with a deal agreed between the EU’s 25 states this no longer matters.
The question is how long this unusual coalition will last. In theory Merkel will be chancellor for the next four years. But few observers in Berlin believe the new government will last that long. — Â