The trouble with revolutions is that they raise expectations. When revolutionary change fails to materialise, disillusion sets in. That is the case to some extent in former Soviet Georgia. And it is the problem confronting Viktor Yushchenko, elected Ukraine’s hero-president after last year’s ”orange revolution”.
Yushchenko denies the bid to remake Ukraine as a modern, unified, democracy has stalled. ”Fourteen years ago, Ukraine became independent but not free. That was our main task last November,” he said on Monday in London. ”The victory of freedom was an achievement of the whole Ukrainian nation.”
Now Yushchenko is pursuing a series of proposals designed to fulfil the revolution’s promise and underpin what he terms Ukraine’s ”renaissance”. But even he concedes the situation is volatile. ”It’s all very complicated,” a weary-looking Yushchenko said prior to speaking at Chatham House. ”Things change in front of your eyes.”
Yushchenko may have been referring to bitter splits in the ranks of his Our Ukraine movement and the electoral threat posed by his former ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, whom he fired as prime minister last month. Or he could have had in mind the dismay felt by some about a mooted alliance after next March’s key parliamentary elections with Viktor Yanukovich, last winter’s defeated, fraud-tainted rival who still commands support in eastern Ukraine.
But if such moves smack of realpolitik, there may be more to come. With Ukraine fighting to break old Soviet habits, eliminate corruption and cronyism, and overcome this year’s economic slump, Yushchenko is seeking answers through integration with the West. He wants full EU membership. He also wants to join the World Trade Organisation and Nato.
At the same time, he said, Kiev sought constructive ties with Russia, on which it is dependent for energy, despite ”certain peculiarities” in the relationship. Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, would visit Ukraine soon (as would British Prime Minister Tony Blair). Euro-Atlantic integration was not ”a policy aimed against somebody but a natural, logical aspiration”, because Europe’s basic values were Ukraine’s too.
But while Yushchenko wants to be everybody’s friend, it is unclear how heartily that sentiment is returned — and how much reliance Ukraine can place on international solidarity a year after Kiev’s streets turned orange.
Humiliated last winter, Moscow and its remaining allies in the ”post-Soviet space” have signalled a tougher approach, in particular over energy. Turkmenistan told Ukraine last week that a 25-year bilateral natural gas deal required Russia’s consent; and Kiev must first cough up money already owed.
The post-Turkey EU is in two minds over future enlargement. Ukraine was disappointed by last February’s limited EU ”action plan”. Brussels has yet to commit to full Ukrainian membership despite the enthusiasm of Britain and the US. Nato membership could prove a mixed blessing. It would gratify Washington’s need for global reach. Lord Robertson, the former Nato secretary-general, was effusive in his encouragement yesterday. But Nato’s embrace could further upset relations with Moscow, one reason perhaps why many Ukrainians oppose it.
Yushchenko pointed to significant progress. He claimed the economy was recovering, real incomes and investment were rising, and there had been significant societal advances. ”The political opposition is respected. The prosecution of businesses on political grounds is over.” The future handling of previously privatised state assets would be transparent, the rule of law respected, and the media were free to report, he said.
Yushchenko still bears the scars of last year’s attempt to poison him. Facing so many problems, his political survival and that of the revolution he led could boil down to political will, said Bobo Lo, a regional analyst. ”Whether he is determined enough, strong enough, energetic enough, that could be more important than all the political challenges.” – Guardian Unlimited Â