Côte d’Ivoire has been left lingering in a constitutional twilight zone for a second successive week, waiting for continental leaders to make the next vital move.
Presidents Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo have to attend a special forum in Yamoussoukro to help decide on a new prime minister to lead the country to elections. But Obasanjo was mourning his wife last week and Mbeki’s office says he has pressing domestic political engagements this weekend that he is unlikely to cancel.
Not surprisingly, Mbeki is stung by the rejection of his mediation by the Ivorian opposition and rebel groups. But he has maintained his willingness to continue in the facilitation job he was mandated to do by the African Union a year ago.
The Ivorian leadership scheduled the special forum for this week, but President Laurent Gbagbo is known to be insistent on Mbeki and Obasanjo’s presence. ”They are leaving a horrible gap by not being there,” said Richard Cornwell, a senior analyst at the Institute for Security Studies. ”It broadens the period of uncertainty.”
Mbeki and Obasanjo are needed to cool tempers. Already the rebel New Forces have named Guillaume Soro as their prime minister. Even political opposition groups aligned with the rebels have refused to accept this. The incumbent Seydou Diarra is a contender, but he is discounted as an appointment foisted on Gbagbo during the 2003 Linas Marcoussis talks.
Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad told a media briefing this week: ”If a new prime minister is not found soon, the situation could deteriorate. The situation in Ivory Coast demands a new prime minister who is much stronger and has a better relationship with President Gbagbo.”
”It is a pretty hopeless job,” said Cornwell. ”Unless you are Gbagbo’s man, you’ll never get things past him or his civil service. The AU has been concentrating on the legal framework without thinking of the political realities. It speaks about building faith and trust, but what reason is there for these? Everyone knows it’s a zero sum game so why pretend there’s any hope of a win-win.”