Egypt holds its first round of parliamentary elections on Wednesday in a closely watched test of the government’s self-proclaimed reform agenda.
President Hosni Mubarak has promised ambitious political reforms to open up the one-party state he has ruled for 24 years. But months of protest followed when it became clear the proposed changes would be strictly limited.
Today’s vote, the first of three rounds spread over the next month, will establish how much of an inroad the opposition can make into a Parliament in which Mubarak’s National Democratic party usually holds around 90% of the seats.
Two months ago presidential elections were held for the first time. Mubarak remained president — the result was never in doubt — and now the party has promised to change the Constitution to commit to presidential elections in future, to give more power to Parliament, to increase quotas for women in Parliament and to replace the long-standing emergency law. It is still unclear how far the changes will go, but it seems there will at least be a little more space for the opposition in future.
Mohamed Kamal, a leading member of the ruling party’s policies secretariat, said the changes represented an ”unprecedented political debate” for Egypt.
”In the NDP we are taking these elections seriously and we hope to win a majority that allows us to implement our reform agenda. However, we will be glad to see a bigger representation of opposition parties,” he said.
Mubarak now saw political reform as his ”legacy”, he added.
Yet few in the opposition see the election in the same terms.
The biggest opposition force is the Society of Muslim Brothers, a powerful Islamist movement that has a strong social network across the country. The movement is not allowed to be a political party and its members and leaders are frequently jailed.
Essam al-Erian, a physician, former MP and longtime member of the Muslim Brotherhood, was jailed this summer in the latest crackdown on the movement.
”We want to believe that there is reform but we are waiting to see the deeds,” he said. ”If these elections do not produce a result that reflects the campaigning we have done it will be very dangerous.”
Members of the Brotherhood are standing in the election, but have to enter as independents. They have 17 of 444 elected seats in the current Parliament. ”We need to have a new Parliament that pushes for reform. Until now all the pressure for change has come from the outside, not inside,” he said.
There are several other opposition groups, among them al-Ghad, or tomorrow, party run by Ayman Nour, an experienced politician who challenged Mubarak for the presidency in September.
He has faced court cases brought by the government that have restricted his ability to campaign.
In a rally on Monday night in his constituency at Bab al-Sheriya, in central Cairo, he stood in a pinstripe suit before a large crowd and complained about campaign violations and unfair pressures used against him by the state. He promised change would come.
”It is you who have created a change in Egypt,” he shouted to the crowd. ”Our job is to say through the microphones at the Parliament what you are saying in your workshops and your private meetings.”
His aides admit the party may struggle to win many more than its current seven seats in parliament. Many ordinary Egyptians have been put off politics after years of one-party rule.
”They don’t see any improvement and so the election process is unproven for them,” said Ashraf Ibrahim, one of Nour’s advisers.
Human rights groups who are monitoring the election say they already have evidence of widespread violations and use of official patronage to secure a comfortable win for the ruling party.
The candidates
National Democratic party
Ruling party led by President Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian leader for 24 years. Holds more than 90% of seats in Parliament
Muslim Brotherhood
A major opposition force though not a legal political party. Its members must campaign as independents
National Front for Political and Constitutional Change
Newly-formed coalition of nine opposition groups including leftists, Arab nationalists and some moderate Islamists
Al-Ghad party
Led by Ayman Nour, who came a distant second to Mubarak in presidential elections in September – Guardian Unlimited Â