The African Union is determined to take the issue of Security Council reform down to the wire at this session of the United Nations General Assembly.
Observers differ on whether this is stubborn or shrewd.
About a month from now, Africa will know exactly what support it has for its aspiration to occupy two permanent seats, with veto rights, and five rotating seats on a reformed Security Council.
Last week, the AU summit in Addis Ababa decided to persist with its hard-line reform model, knowing this puts it beyond the pale of the current permanent members (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States) of the UN powerhouse.
Even if the proposal achieves the two-thirds majority in the General Assembly that will take the issue to the Security Council, it is generally accepted that the momentum for reform has dissipated. Certainly it will not re-emerge during the tenure of Kofi Annan as Secretary General.
Less charitable observers say this is Africa’s fault. “We had the chance and we blew it,” UN Assistant Secretary General Ramesh Thakur told the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria.
“The veto power was never a possibility for new permanent members. The G4 [Brazil, Germany, India and Japan] accepted this. They were convinced they had the support in the General Assembly to secure permanent seats for themselves and two Africa candidates.”
Thakur criticised President Thabo Mbeki for blaming rich and powerful states for blocking reform while not acknowledging Africa’s role in wrecking the process.
Members of the G4 concur that it would have been better to get the permanent seats and leave the battle for the veto for a later date.
The G4 model could not, however, guarantee one rotating seat for each of the continent’s five regions.
Africa’s headstrong approach was driven as much by its desire to gain maximum representation as its fixation with continental unity.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said: “As far as we are concerned, a lot was achieved in Addis Ababa, even though there is no change in our position. Part of the progress is we are moving together. We will test our support and, after that, we will be united more than ever. Reform of the Security Council is important to Africa, but African unity is just as important.”
Director for the Africa Institute of South Africa, Dr Eddie Moloka believes the African move was a triumph of reason and by “leaving it to the UN, we are making a more nuanced approach”.
“We are removing from Africa the trouble of having to decide who must represent the continent. There is still hope for reform because there is support for this from more than two thirds of the UN members.”
Africa may have averted for the time being the contest over who should carry its banner in the Security Council, but at some stage it is going to have to grasp the nettle.
By not doing so on this crucial issue, it has lost an opportunity to show that it has moved on from the blinkered Organisation of African Unity days of putting unity above everything.