/ 11 November 2005

Deadlock ahead of key ANC meeting

African National Congress president Thabo Mbeki and his deputy, Jacob Zuma, have failed to resolve their acrimonious dispute — posing a major problem for the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC).

The NEC meets next weekend to consider a report by secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe on Mbeki and Zuma’s progress in settling their differences, which have deeply split the ANC.

The two leaders agreed at the last NEC meeting to come up with solid suggestions to ensure the party was not torn apart by their dispute. The national executive agreed that ”the leadership should rise above the fray and find mature ways of dealing with the challenges”.

But the Mail & Guardian has learnt that there has been little real progress, as the two cannot agree on what constitutes the substantive issues.

Underlying the conflict, which has become personal, is the issue of who should succeed Mbeki as ANC and South Africa’s president, with Zuma being punted by the Youth League and Mbeki saying he would be available if nominated for the ANC presidency.

Zuma is said to have insisted that his corruption trial is the result of years of abuse of state resources, aimed at ensuring that he does not become the next president. Sources said he has demanded discussion of the trial, while Mbeki has argued that it was a judicial matter and, therefore, out of his jurisdiction.

Two weeks ago, the ANC’s national working committee — its inner leadership core — decided to involve Motlanthe in drawing up a report for presentation to the NEC with Mbeki and Zuma’s cooperation.

However, the sources said the report was unlikely to contain meaningful recommendations, and the NEC would have to decide on what to do next.

While many Cabinet members are expected to support Mbeki at the NEC meeting, Zuma will be counting on the support of ANC provincial chairpersons and secretaries, most of whom are believed to support him.

There are certain to be questions at next week’s meeting about how Zuma has behaved in campaigning for his cause and in taking indirect shots at his rival.

Mbeki’s supporters believe Zuma has incited rebellion against the justice system by comparing his treatement at the hands of the National Prosecuting Authority with apartheid justice.

”He is basically calling on his supporters to fight it in the same way that they fought the apartheid system. He has taken his fight against the justice system to the streets,” said a source close to Mbeki.

However, Zuma supporters say he is reluctant to be rushed into an agreement that would prevent him from lobbying and addressing rallies across the country, which is currently his strength.

After his last court appearance, he said that if it not been for mass demonstrations in his support, he would already be history.

This week Minister of Intelligence Ronnie Kasrils visited newspaper editors to reinforce his public statement that leaked e-mail messages purporting to come from Mbeki loyalists were a hoax, and to warn that further disinformation might be in the pipeline.

The messages talk of systematic endeavours to undermine Zuma and to destroy the credibility of Motlanthe, who is now seen as being in the Zuma camp.

Kasrils’s roadshow is likely to strengthen the suspicions of Zuma loyalists that he is acting in a partisan manner.

The ANC Youth League accused him of bias after he suspended senior National Intelligence Agency officials for launching a surveillance operation into businessman Saki Macozoma, while initially ignoring league president Fikile Mbalula’s complaints of being followed by agency agents.

The Cabinet subsequently issued a statement saying Kasrils was not seeking to settle political scores.

At the NEC meeting, Zuma sympathisers are expected to reject the claim that the e-mails are fraudulent, and to use them to show that state agencies are being misused by Zuma’s enemies to destroy him.