In many ways, the formal split of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is the end of a world. Here was a party that for the first time in the history of Zimbabwe was able to unite under one roof capitalists and socialists, the workers, the unemployed, peasants, intellectuals and students. In a phrase: everyone.
The MDC’s ability to gel disparate groups was its strength and, in many ways, its Achilles heel.
Professor Brian Raftopolous, of the Institute of Development Studies, who was roped in late last year as a mediator in the MDC leadership fallout, told the Mail & Guardian this week: ”The mediation is over. It failed. We have not made any new efforts. The division has gone too far.”
He painted three scenarios for MDC supporters: some will join the Morgan Tsvangirai camp or the Welshman Ncube group; some will pin their hopes on a reformed Zanu-PF; while others will train their sights on the civic movement, whose most visible protagonist is Dr Lovemore Madhuku of the National Constitutional Assembly.
”People must regroup, reorganise and confront what may be a long struggle,” Raftopolous advised. He saw a viable opposition in one of the MDC factions linking up with a vibrant civic movement.
Dr Eldred Masunungure, a political analyst based at the University of Zimbabwe, also believes the party that has offered the sternest contest yet to the ruling party will cease to exist. ”There is no chance for the party to reconcile. The differences cannot be bridged. It will be healthier for them to go their separate ways.”
He said he did not see a viable opposition ”in the near future”, but predicted the emergence of one by 2010 ahead of the next elections, just as the MDC and the Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM) announced their arrival prior to the 2000 and 1990 polls respectively. In that dispensation, Masunungure argued: ”We are likely to see the marginalisation of the [current] opposition leaders.”
Those advocating the road of a reformed Zanu-PF hope the ruling party will take heed of the Southern African Development Community protocols on the holding of elections, and uphold the rule of law and democratic values. In short, a party that would erase Robert Mugabe’s legacy.
But there is a catch. Zanu-PF has a crisis of its own — a succession battle that is simmering and could explode the moment Mugabe’s grip weakens.
Former student leader and human rights activist Daniel Molokela speaks for many when he says the MDC has disappointed Zimbabweans more than Zanu-PF. ”The hopes we had for a new era have been dashed. The MDC has become a source of frustration.”
Zanu-PF at its moment of glory was never able to command as wholesale support as the MDC did. Its quest for hegemony just after independence was never successful. The Matabeleland provinces were always beholden to the Joshua Nkomo-led (PF) Zapu. This uneasy political balance is seen in all the serious formations after the Unity Accord of 1987. All had variously been seen as tribal, regional or a home for intellectuals.
Although Edgar Tekere’s ZUM was able to secure 20% of the vote in 1990, its support came mainly from the eastern highlands. Former chief justice Enoch Dumbutshena’s Forum Party of Zimbabwe was dismissed as elitist .
It was a character in Salman Rushdie’s The Moor’s Last Sigh who said the end of a world is not the end of the world.