According to the latest Absa house-price index, nominal house price growth was 14,9% year-on-year in January compared with a revised growth rate of 15,5% in December.
This brought the average price of a house in the middle segment of the market to about R752 300 in the first month of the year.
In real terms, year-on-year growth of 11,5% was recorded in December compared with a revised growth rate of 12,3% in November, based on the headline consumer price index, Absa said.
The average real year-on-year growth in house prices was 18,1% in 2005, based on an average headline CPI inflation rate of 3,4% last year.
On a month-on-month basis, nominal growth in house prices came to 1% in January compared with a revised growth rate of 1,2% in December. Real month-on-month growth of 1,1% was recorded in December last year.
Based on the current mortgage interest rate of 10,5% and the average price of a house in January this year, the monthly mortgage repayment and the gross monthly income required in order to afford a 100% mortgage were 11,2% higher in the past month compared with January 2005 when the rise was 26,8%.
Although housing is, in general, still less affordable than a year ago according to this analysis, the rate of deterioration has decelerated significantly during the course of the past 12 months, Absa said.
Absa added that lower nominal house price growth of between 10% and 12% is projected for 2006, with the affordability of housing continuing to play an important role.
Residential property market could pick up
While all indications point to a slowdown in residential property in South Africa, the market may begin to recover as early as the first half of 2007, FNB property strategist John Loos said on Monday.
Loos cautioned, however, that with residential property prices coming off a high base, he is not expecting the same sort of growth seen in recent years.
The path in house-price inflation appears to be a downward one for the immediate future, Loos said.
He noted that the South African Reserve Bank monetary policy committee (MPC) last week left the repo rate unchanged at 7% and there has been little interest-rate stimulus since 2003, with only one 50 basis-point repo rate cut per year in 2004 and 2005.
Other factors contributing to decreased house-price inflation are a rising household debt-service ratio, recent strength in growth in new housing stock and house-price inflation coming off an extremely high base.
Supply and demand are as key to property prices as they are to other markets, said Loos.
The declining trend in house-price inflation since a peak of 34,6% in the third quarter of 2004 as reflected by the Absa house-price series has been caused by both flagging demand as well as booming supply-side growth.
He noted that last week’s release of mortgage advances data showed lower year-on-year growth, a further indication of demand growth tapering off in the highly credit-driven housing market.
Loos said that while many commentators anticipate the average national house-price inflation to be in the low teens for the year as a whole, by late 2006 the year-on-year growth rate could be down to single-digit figures or even close to zero.
“Nevertheless, with FNB anticipating economic growth of between 4% and 5% per annum over the next few years, and a rapidly expanding middle class, housing-demand growth can be expected to be strong. On the supply side, the building industry and land supply may struggle to keep pace. Therefore, once the high base off which house-price inflation currently comes has been reduced … solid economic fundamentals could see house-price inflation moving back up into the 10%-to-15% range later in 2007 where it could remain for the rest of the decade.
“After a brief lull in 2006, this would see growth in new housing supply also recovering later in 2007.”
The extremities of the post-1998 boom will probably not be repeated in a hurry, he asserted.
“However, the prospect of good economic times ahead and further interest-rate reduction suggest that we should make provision for further good times in the housing market,” Loos concluded. — I-Net Bridge