In the Western Cape, traditionally a province where the opposition has been predominant, the ruling African National Congress is likely to see a more rosy result than in Cape Town in next Wednesday’s municipal election.
In Cape Town — the major municipality in the province’s 30 municipalities, including five district municipalities — the official opposition Democratic Alliance is likely to make gains after losing the council in defections in 2002 to the ANC. Its advance could possibly be strong enough to snatch power or forge a unity government.
Although in the previous municipal election in 2000 the DA was the predominant party in the province with 49,8% of the vote compared with 39,7% for the ANC, by-election trends — particularly in rural areas of the Western Cape — have indicated the ANC is not losing support.
The DA, however, has been bled in by-elections by Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats and by other smaller parties.
Altogether 15 municipalities were lost by the DA to the ANC in floor-crossing periods in the past five years. Six were won in the 2000 municipal poll with more than 50% — including Cape Town (52,3%), Overberg (54,9% in 2004), Overstrand (66%) and Prince Albert (62%), and Langeberg including Heidelberg and Riversdale (51%). These are the most likely to be won back by the DA.
The ANC scored more than 50% of the vote in just four municipalities last time — Central Karoo (54,5%), Plettenberg Bay (59%), Laingsburg (56,7%) and Beaufort West (nearly 60%). It is likely to retain these areas.
The others that switched to the ANC from the DA in floor crossings — Garden Route/Klein Karoo (where the DA gained 47,6% and the ANC 42% in 2000), Saldanha Bay (43% and 46%), Witzenberg (40% and 42%), Drakenstein (44% and 42%), Stellenbosch (42% and 40%), Breede Valley including Worcester (43,7% and 44.9%), Swellendam (47,8% and 44,8%), Kannaland including Ladismith (44% and 46,5%), Oudtshoorn (44,5% and 44%), and Knysna (42,33% and 35,06%) — will be less easy for the DA to win back as they were won with a minority of the vote, less than 50%, last time.
The overall recent by-election trend particularly in coloured wards in the province has seen a downturn in the DA vote, with the ANC remaining fairly stable. The ID has also been giving the DA a run for its money in such places as Oudtshoorn and Paarl.
For example, in July last year the DA slipped to third place in an Oudtshoorn ward with 525 votes, or 28,5% behind the ID’s 598 votes to 32,5%, while the ANC retained its seat won in 2000 with 38,2%. In the 2000 municipal election, the ANC received 42% and the DA received 35,4%.
In Paarl in October last year, the ID came in just behind the DA with 16,8% — standing for the first time — while the DA received just 17% with the ANC winning with nearly 52%. The Federal Democrats won 5,2% and the United Party of South Africa — both parties formed in the floor crossings last year — won 5% and 9% respectively.
It is clear that the newer small parties bled DA support as it had won by 96 votes against the ANC in 2000. The DA won then with 45,4% of the vote (825 votes) to the ANC’s 40,1% (729 votes), with other small parties polling a total of 263 votes.
In Cape Town the trend against the DA is less marked. For example in September last year, the ANC held on to one of only two seats it won in coloured areas of the city in 2000. The seat was vacated by a mayoral committee member, Saleem Mowzer. Fareda Omar, widow of late transport minister Dullah Omar, won with 2 047 votes or 61% to the DA’s 38% or 1 278 votes. In 2000, the ANC won 51,7% or 3 735 votes, while the DA won 36,7%. The Africa Muslim Party then polled 3,9%, and the African Christian Democratic Party 7%.
In another seat in Cape Town in a by-election on the same day, the DA retained its seat won in 2000, also in a largely coloured area. The DA won ward 21 with 1 926 votes or 55,5% in a 25% poll. The ANC received 1 488 votes or 42%. In 2000, the DA won 53% with 2 674 votes to the ANC’s 1 973 or 39,7% in a 43% poll.
Significantly, however, these wards were not contested by smaller parties last year. — I-Net Bridge