Democratic Alliance canvassers believe the DA will take Cape Town next Wednesday, but may have to depend on other parties to install Helen Zille as mayor.
The upbeat feeling is tempered by indications that it may need Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats or even Pieter Mulder’s Freedom Front Plus — standing in all city wards for the first time — for a unity government.
De Lille announced on Thursday that she is interested in being a queen-maker and will demand an executive committee system, rather than the current mayoral committee system, to govern the city.
The DA believes support for the ID has ”evaporated” in Cape Town’s traditionally white areas, where it came third in 2004. ID support in coloured areas is below 10% in canvassing returns.
One DA councillor argued that outgoing African National Congress mayor Nomaindia Mfeketo’s unpopularity in her own party, and repeated power cuts — four in the past week — were bad news for the ANC, while Zille had breathed new life into her party.
Rallies and canvassing in coloured areas — where the key to power lies — showed a trend to the DA, the councillor said.
The ANC has run a low-key campaign in Cape Town and is fighting its own former members as independents in wards in core township areas. During a whistle-stop tour this week of the city’s poorer areas — including Delft, Macassacar, Athlone, Gugulethu and Langa — President Thabo Mbeki warned against voters supporting ”those masquerading” as ANC candidates.
The defection of key supporters, including former councillors, clearly worries the party. Yet, ANC canvassers are putting their money on the thousands of, mainly black, extra voters the party has registered in recent months.
Institute for Democracy in South Africa researcher Jonathan Faull argues that the decisive factor in all 284 municipal elections will be turnout ”and, more specifically, relative turnout”. In Cape Town, the only metro where coloured voters predominate, it is critical.
The ANC’s successes in 1999 and 2000 flowed from a good turnout of African voters. The DA’s 2004 performance (27%) will not be enough to win the city this time.
In 2004, the ID won 8,16% and the New National Party about 10%. The turnout of former NNP supporters will be pivotal to whether the ANC or DA win. Faull pointed out that the NNP’s demise had mainly fuelled voter apathy, to the detriment of the non-ANC turnout.
The FF Plus is counting on a sizeable chunk of this vote and is likely to peak at about 4%. Die Burger reader polls indicate that its mayoral candidate will draw up to 25% of Afrikaans-speakers. The polls also estimate that Zille has over 60% support among Afrikaners as mayor.
Most white voters in Cape Town, and the Western Cape in general, will back the DA with coloureds, representing 49% of the vote, determining who will rule. Whites comprise 24% of Capetonians. And if the African Christian Democratic Party does not stand, which looks likely, its conservative support base would drift mainly to the DA.
The DA’s 2000 victory was achieved by securing a majority of the vote in the coloured suburbs. In 2004, it won 27,7% of the vote in coloured wards, compared to the NNP’s 24,9% and ANC’s 22,9%. If the ANC absorbs the NNP’s support base, it will win the city.
But Faull pointed out that there was a historical lack of engagement with local government in coloured and black communities, whch had rejected formal municipal institutions under apartheid. Whites had a history of civic engagement through ratepayers associations, civic and business forums and neighbourhood watch committees. In addition, municipal issues such as refuse removal, clean streets and parks were traditional middle-class concerns.
In the Western Cape as a whole, the outlook for the DA is less rosy. In 2000, it was the province’s dominant party, with 49,8% of the vote, compared with the ANC’s 39,7%.
It is likely to win six of the 15 municipalities lost to the ANC in floor-crossing periods where it won over 50% of the vote in 2000, including Cape Town, Overstrand, Prince Albert and Langeberg.
However, the other municipalities that switched to the ANC in floor crossings — Garden Route/Klein Karoo, Saldanha Bay, Witzenberg, Drakenstein, Stellenbosch, Breede Valley, Swellendam, Kannaland, Oudtshoorn and Knysna — will be less easy for the DA to regain, as they were won on the last occasion with a minority of the vote.
Recent by-elections, particularly in coloured wards, have seen a downturn in DA support, with the ANC remaining fairly stable.
The ID has also been giving the DA a run for its money in towns such as as Oudtshoorn and Paarl. In July last year, the DA slipped from second to third place in an Oudtshoorn ward, behind the ID and ANC.
The smaller parties, including the Federal Democrats and the United Party of South Africa (both formed during last year’s floor crossings), have clearly bled DA support.
