Five candidates are vying for the Ugandan presidency, while close on 1Â 000 are contesting Parliamentary seats in 214 constituencies as well as the 69 districts which are reserved for women.
Miria Obote, wife of former head of state Milton Obote, is the Uganda People’s Congress presidential candidate. John Ssebana Kizito is representing the Democratic Party, while Abed Bwanika is standing as an independent. But President Yoweri Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) are considered the front-runners.
Opinion polls published last week show that Museveni has the edge but is unlikely to win 51% of the vote at present. Failing this, a second round of voting will have to take place. In the event that Besigye does upset expectations, there are fears that the army might not support him.
The Uganda People’s Defence Forces have been accused of provoking campaign-related violence. Last week, a soldier dressed in civilian clothes fired on a crowd of Besigye supporters in Mengo, near the capital, Kampala. Three people died in the incident.
Four days later, seven armoured trucks filled with soldiers drove into a group of FDC supporters in Mukono, causing a stampede that injured several people — two critically. NRM head of security James Kinobe claims the FDC followers have made a habit of holding rallies next to roads, so blocking traffic. FDC officials believe these instances of violence go beyond harassment, and are part of a campaign to assassinate Besigye.
Besigye, once Museveni’s doctor, is standing against his former patient and guerrilla bush war comrade for the second time. In 2001, he campaigned on the Reform Agenda ticket and lost, subsequently going into self-imposed exile in South Africa.
After his return towards the end of last year, Besigye has divided his time between court hearings on charges of treason, terrorism and rape, and the campaign trail. Most recently, there have been calls for his candidature to be nullified on the grounds that his academic qualifications are suspect.
Museveni took power in 1986 after unseating Tito Okello, who had himself gained office through a military coup. Milton Obote, against whom the NRM waged a five-year guerrilla bush war, preceded Okello. Museveni banned multiparty politics. A referendum last year voted to reinstate the system.
The president amended the Constitution last year in a bid to gain a third term in office — a move that prompted several NRM members to defect to Besigye.
Donors have also criticised Muse-veni’s attempts to remain in power, cutting funds to the country or withdrawing aid.
Recent events have left many wondering whether Uganda is returning to the dark days of Obote and an earlier ruler, Idi Amin — both of whom presided over violence and rights abuses. “We are being told to stock the house, including fuelling the car,” a Ugandan employee of an international NGO told IPS. Added Fred Kamuntu, a trader in Kampala: “Nobody knows what is going to happen. Things already don’t look good, business is slow.” — Â