The Inkatha Freedom Party’s decline was set to continue in KwaZulu-Natal as the African National Congress had gained considerable ground in IFP strongholds by the end of Thursday.
At the time of going to press the ANC had 43% of the vote and the IFP was at 45%. But analysts warned that this could not be used as a gauge of the final outcome because Ethekwini metropolitan, which has a third of all KwaZulu-Natal’s voters (and is traditionally an ANC stronghold), was still being determined at the time of going to press. The Mail & Guardian understands that a recount had been called for after the results in several wards were exceptionally close.
Kiru Naidoo, political analyst at the Durban Institute for Technology, said the IFP lead would reverse once the final count for the metro was in.
A better gauge of the IFP’s decline is three municipalities where the IFP was very strong, but has shed thousands of votes to the ANC.
In Dannhauser the ANC increased its votes by 103% (it won 3 000 voters from the IFP); in Mkhanbathini (Camperdown) the ANC increased its dominance by 34%; and in Kwa Sani (Underberg) it increased by 84%.
According to a statement released by the ANC on Thursday afternoon: ”In KwaZulu-Natal the sharp decline in votes for the IFP that has been the trend over the past few years has continued unabated. The ANC, on the other hand, has significantly increased its number of votes, especially in small towns. For example, the ANC has won the Kwa Sani -municiplaity, gaining 70% of the popular vote.”
In 2000, the IFP won 45% of the vote compared to the ANC’s 35%. This reversed in 2004 with the ANC increasing to 46% and the IFP dropping to 36%. On Thursday afternoon the Democratic Alliance had 6,5% of the vote, down from 8% in 2004. However, only 66% of the vote had been counted in KwaZulu-Natal at the time of going to press.
The National Democratic Convention (Nadeco), the newest party on the block, had fared poorly, with only 1,8% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal on Thursday. Nationally the party held 0,3% if the vote.
Nadeco’s biggest support came from ANC-dominated Ingwe (Crighton) where it gained 8% of its vote.
”We saw this election as a trial run,” said Ziba Jiyabe, Nadeco’s president. ”But however much you tell your supporters that, they will still be very disappointed.”
The ANC has maintained its foothold in at least four municipalities it gained from the IFP through floor-crossing — Umtshezi (Estcourt), Edondakusuka (Mandeni), Ugu and Ubuhlebexwe (Ixopo).
S’bu Ndebele, KwaZulu-Natal Premier, said he was confident the ANC would gain an absolute majority in the province once the Ethekwini results were in. This would mean 50% plus one and the ANC could then -constitute the executive alone.
The Ethekwini vote would also increase Nadeco’s percentage because voters in two disaffected areas, Cato Manor and Clare Estate, had indicated they would vote for Nadeco. At least 800 000 of the city’s three million people live in shacks, according to Durban metro figures.
At the time of going to press the IFP had won only 10 municipalities. In 2000 it won 51 of the 61 in KwaZulu-Natal.