As one of Charles Taylor’s closest advisers warns of ”bloodshed and chaos” if the former Liberian president is extradited, analysts say the international community must act quickly to prevent his supporters from re-arming.
Taylor, currently in exile in Nigeria, faces 17 counts of crimes against humanity brought by an internationally backed special court in Sierra Leone.
He is prevented from speaking to the media by the terms of his agreement with Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, but now, says his ”spiritual adviser”, evangelist Kilari Anand Paul, he feels betrayed.
”Obasanjo is doing this so the White House will close its eyes to a third term,” he says darkly. The Nigerian president has refused to squash speculation that he plans to change the Constitution to extend his rule — a move that Washington is strongly opposed to.
Analysts also link Obasanjo’s olive branch to the Americans with recent refusals by Western powers to furnish Nigeria with weapons. A recent insurgency in the Niger Delta has cut the production of Africa’s biggest oil producer by a quarter, but the West is alarmed about the human-rights record of the Nigerian military. Recent reports emanating from Vice-President Atiku Abubaker that Nigeria was looking elsewhere for military equipment prompted a flurry of furious denials from the president.
”As long as Taylor is in his custody, he has a better bargaining tool,” says Paul, who warns of an explosion of violence if Taylor is extradited.
Mike McGovern, the West Africa head of the International Crisis Group, points out that while Taylor lacks a clear ally in neighbouring countries from which to mount an insurgency, porous borders mean that many pro-Taylor fighters are still roaming around in Sierra Leone and Western Côte d’Ivoire.
”I think that how much bloodshed potentially comes out of this extradition has a lot to do with how quickly President Obasanjo and his African colleagues come to a decision,” he said. ”If the decision is allowed to drag on it exposes [Liberian] President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to real danger in the sense that it gives pro-Taylor forces time to regroup and recruit.”
Although many observers were surprised at the speed with which Johnson-Sirleaf asked for Taylor’s extradition — a confrontation she had repeatedly dodged during her campaign — McGovern believes, ”her hand was forced because money needed to rebuild the country was tied to this request”. The Liberian president made the announcement during a special address to the United States Congress.
The White House, which has pledged millions in aid to Liberia, has frequently denounced Taylor as one of the world’s worst abusers of human rights, especially after reports that al-Qaeda laundered money through the diamond trade under his rule. A statement issued by the US ambassador to Liberia said: ”We support the efforts of President Sirleaf, President Obasanjo and other African leaders to bring Charles Taylor to justice.”
The current charges against Taylor do not relate to abuses committed in Liberia, where he began a war that cost up to a quarter of a million lives, but his backing for rebels in Sierra Leone, who abducted children and cut the limbs off civilians in a struggle to control the country’s rich diamond fields.
Taylor fled Liberia in 2003 as rebel groups advanced on the capital and took refuge in Nigeria. Last week Johnson-Sirleaf, formally requested his extradition on behalf of the court. The Nigerian government has always said it would hand over Taylor to an elected government, but now his ”spiritual adviser”, Paul, is warning that to do so will lead to a renewed outbreak of the brutal civil war. ”Tens of thousands of people still live and die for Charles Taylor,” he said, hours after a visit to the former president.
”Extraditing him endangers the peace that has come to Liberia.”
Yet it is a risk that many Liberians are willing to take to ensure their former president is locked up for good.
Katherine Kebbah was forced to flee several times and was raped by Taylor’s forces. Now working as a nanny in the capital, she dismisses the complex political games being played around Taylor in the halls of government buildings and plush hotels. She just wants him to answer for his crimes. ”He cannot be trusted,” she said quietly. ”Some I can forgive, but not him. Never him.”