Police statistics showed a correlation between a decrease in car theft and an increase in aggravated robbery, a study presented in Pretoria on Wednesday suggests.
”What do car thieves do when they are not stealing cars? My feeling is that they may be involved in other forms of criminal activity when they are not stealing cars,” said Institute for Security Studies researcher Antony Altbeker.
Altbeker’s study, Cars and Robbers: Has Car-Theft Crime Prevention Worked Too Well?, quotes statistics from police stations between the years 1998/99 and 2003/04.
These show that police stations can expect two more aggravated robberies, on average, for every three car thefts that do not happen.
Altbeker said there is almost certainly a displacement effect between the decrease in car theft and the increase in aggravated robberies, with an almost 0% chance of no displacement relationship between the two.
Altbeker said police statistics show that three of the top 10 stations with the greatest decline in car theft were among the 10 that showed the biggest increase in aggravated robbery.
Between 1998/99 and 2003/04, Hillbrow had seen 1 018 fewer car-theft cases, but 2 183 more aggravated robberies, while Pretoria Central had 853 fewer car thefts and 966 more aggravated robberies.
Sunnyside, just outside the Pretoria CBD, had 493 fewer car thefts and 1 092 more aggravated robberies.
Altbeker emphasised that the link is a correlation rather than an indication that the decrease in car thefts has actually caused an increase in robberies.
Changes in the ”risk and rewards” for car thieves in South Africa make cars a less desirable target, said Altbeker.
He said increased risks for car thieves include car tracking devices, improvements in vehicle licence registration that make reselling stolen cars more difficult, and the introduction of minimum sentences for car hijacking.
Altbeker said there is evidence of success to combat car theft, but suggested policy-makers look at the intended consequences of that success, such as its potential effects on other types on crime.
He suggested more should be done to focus on decreasing robbery in order to counter any potential effects that the successes in preventing car theft might have. — Sapa