Super 14 rugby coaches will have their calculators out this weekend as the unbeaten Canterbury Crusaders head a congested pack of 12 teams still in with a chance of making the play-offs with four matches to play.
In a battle of former All Black coaches, the Crusaders should be far too powerful for the winless Western Force in Perth, and victory would make the defending champions the first team to qualify for the semifinals.
But behind them every other team, except the Force and the Golden Cats, needs a minimum of two more wins and, for most, other results to go their way, in order to make the final four.
The ACT Brumbies are currently fourth on 28 points, just 14 points ahead of the 12th placed Western Stormers — with a maximum 20 points available for teams over the closing matches of the round robin.
The Crusaders-Force match pits the former All Black coaching partnership of Robbie Deans and John Mitchell against each other.
Head coach Mitchell and his assistant Deans were dumped as All Black coaches after failing to lift the 2003 World Cup, and their paths have since parted.
Deans is the mastermind of the Crusaders, unbeaten after nine matches this year and heading towards another Super rugby title, while Mitchell guides the Western Force, who are stuck at the bottom of the table in their debut season.
The Crusaders have disposed of the second- and third-placed sides — the Waratahs and Hurricanes — in recent weeks and a win over the injury-ravaged Force would seem to be a formality.
The second-placed New South Wales Waratahs are on 38 points, two behind the Crusaders, but they have the bye this week, and the feature match of the round is the clash between the third- and fourth-placed Wellington Hurricanes and the Brumbies.
A five-point bonus win would put the Hurricanes into equal second and improve their chances of a home semifinal, while a win for the Brumbies would bring them level with the Hurricanes and give them a psychological boost given their injury worries.
Key playmaker Stephen Larkham has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, inside centre Matt Giteau has been ruled out due to a knee injury and there are concerns over captain Stirling Mortlock, who is carrying a shoulder injury.
The Hurricanes have managed to win seven games this season despite not hitting top gear, and have made just one change to the starting 15 that dispatched the Highlanders last weekend, with veteran pivot David Holwell replacing Jimmy Gopperth.
Four teams are tied for sixth — the Coastal Sharks, Auckland Blues and Waikato Chiefs — with the Sharks and Blues to clash in Durban.
The Blues, renowned for their inconsistency, start their South African tour on the back foot with the 16-week suspension of Rua Tipoki, while a shoulder injury has brought an early end to Troy Flavell’s season.
The Chiefs are at home to the Cheetahs and should be too strong, even without Sione Lauaki, the bruising loose forward, who has also suffered a season-ending injury.
The 11th-placed Reds host the 12th-placed Stormers in Brisbane, while in Pretoria the Bulls, in fifth spot on 23 points, are against the lowly Cats.
The Highlanders have the bye along with the Waratahs. — Sapa-AFP