Daniel Ortega led a rogue state before rogue states were invented. As chief engineer of Nicaragua’s 1980s left-wing Sandinista revolution, he became Ronald Reagan’s favourite Central American whipping boy. The United States government conspired with so-called Contra rebels to overthrow him. He was eventually voted out of office in 1990, beaten by a US-backed candidate.
Ortega hasn’t given up — and says he has changed since the days of struggle. ‘That moment has passed. This revolution is peaceful,†he said recently. To prove his point, he picked a former Contra leader and banker, Jaime Morales Carazo, as his running mate in presidential elections due in November. ‘We have to send a signal to the poor, but also to the private sector. And what better signal than Morales?â€
But like other left-wing parties fighting tight election races in Latin America this year, the new-look Sandinistas have a problem they cannot control. It is called Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan President and self-styled socialist revolutionary who seems hell-bent on recreating Cold-War-era confrontation with Washington. As political hopefuls from Mexico to Peru are discovering, Chávez can be a dangerous friend.
‘I shouldn’t say I hope you win because they will accuse me of sticking my nose into Nicaraguan affairs,†Chávez told Ortega recently. ‘But I hope you win.†As predicted, his intervention brought protests from rivals and Nicaragua’s government. So, too, did his offer of cheap fuel for Sandinista voters. It was not an endorsement suited to Ortega’s new image.
A similar story is unfolding in Mexico, where pollsters suggest the Chávez effect is scaring voters away from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the left’s candidate in next month’s presidential contest. Rightwingers ran television ads likening his tactics to those of the pugnacious Chávez — and Lopez Obrador’s poll lead disappeared.
Chávez’s encouragement of Bolivia’s energy nationalisation, conducted by his radical ally, Evo Morales, infuriated Brazil, which has a big stake in Bolivian gas. His opposition to free trade pacts with the US has riled Colombia, Peru, Mexico and Ecuador. Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s centre-left president, says such splits hurt the region’s collective interest — and reviving ideologi-cal strife is handicapping the fight against poverty and discrimination: ‘The worst thing that could happen is to allow a polarisation.â€
But the tug of war between Caracas and Washington seems unlikely to stop any time soon. ‘Let me put it bluntly. I’m concerned about the erosion of democracy in Venezuela and Bolivia,†US President George W Bush said last month. Chávez shot back the next day: ‘We have to tell the US president that … his imperialist, war-mongering government is dangerously eroding the possibility of peace and life on this planet.†A showdown looms in December, when Chávez himself will seek re-election amid threats of an opposition boycott.
Some things never change, however. Indulging in a little interference of its own, the US is warning Nicaraguans that a Sandinista victory could cost the country dearly in aid and trade. Twenty years on, Washington’s blood feud with Ortega still smoulders. —