After being smacked around since May 11 in equity, bonds and commodities in both the developed and emerging world, it is hard for investors to keep focused on the fundamentals. Globally, investors — not least of all our own Reserve Bank — have begun to fear that this may be the beginning of another 1998-style emerging market crisis. But this is not 1998. The world and particularly emerging markets are very different. The 1997/98 financial crisis was sparked off in Asia. Emerging Asia has $2-trillion in reserves, excluding gold — that is just under half of all the total reserves held by all the emerging market countries.
In 1997, all the East Asian emerging market countries (except China) were running large current account deficits (some more than 8% of gross domestic product). Today, only Thailand runs a small deficit of 1% of GDP. Besides, there is no direct correlation between investor nervousness and current account deficits. During May, foreign investor flows in South Africa remained net-positive and our stockmarket had one of the smallest declines when compared with other developed and developing markets, while Egypt, which has a 2% of GDP current account surplus, experienced significant outflows and a 20% decline in its equity market (a larger decline than Turkey which is running a 6,6% deficit).
Other countries that have current account deficits include Mexico and Thailand, which had smaller stock market declines than countries with large surpluses such as Brazil, Russia and South Korea. While current account surpluses are definite positives, current account deficits, although important to consider, do not in isolation reflect vulnerability to external forces (other important considerations include the composition of the current account deficit, demand for and the value of exports and growth prospects, to name a few).
The recent emerging market sell-off was sparked by investor fears that the United States Federal Reserve Bank has gone too far in hiking rates and that growth may be strangled while inflationary pressures have not yet been reduced to the central bank’s satisfaction, leading to a period of stagflation, when high inflation occurs with low growth and high unemployment.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development indicators point to 5% world growth for this year, up from 4,5% in 2005, while inflation is at a 2% world average. That is not stagflation. Investors simply do not trust the Federal Reserve to make the right policy decisions regarding growth and inflation.
Newly appointed reserve chair- person Ben Bernanke has not inspired investor confidence. Bernanke is rapidly becoming known as “Flip-flop Ben” after presenting to congress on April 27 that the Fed might soon pause and then three days later confiding to a high-profile journalist that investors who thought the Fed was finished hiking had it wrong. He later admitted that taking the journalist into his confidence was a mistake — his admission, however, was not enough to inspire investor confidence and markets have been skittish since then.
The next Fed meeting is on June 29 and market volatility is almost guaranteed until then and, until markets regain their trust in the Fed, this will probably continue.
After 16 consecutive hikes, however, we are close to the end, although the end could come as late as the September 20 Fed meeting. While this uncertainty forced emerging markets to take a breather, having run 150% in the past two years relative to only 60% in developed equity markets, investment opportunities and further growth potential have not disappeared.
Emerging markets have $4-trillion in reserves, low external debt, healthy current account balances, increasingly wealthier populations that are rapidly developing their human and physical capital bases and economic output — when measured in purchasing power terms — that exceeds those of the developed nations.
In purchasing power parity (which removes currency distortions) terms, emerging markets have now surpassed the developed world and make up 55% of world GDP. In the long run capital follows growth not interst rates. The recent sell-off has provided investors with good buying opportunities in markets that will recover rapidly when investor nervousness subsides and the underlying fundamentals, once again, shine through. Don’t miss the bounce.