President Robert Mugabe may have bought himself more time after skilfully evading United Nations pressure by persuading the world body’s Secretary General, Kofi Annan, to cancel his visit to Zimbabwe and instead back mediation between Harare and former colonial power London, analysts say.
Annan said at the weekend that he was no longer visiting Zimbabwe to help resolve the country’s deepening crisis because former Tanzanian president Benjamin Mkapa was already on the ground mediating between Mugabe and British Premier Tony Blair’s governments.
But they say the veteran leader still has to contend with a deepening economic crisis at home and should address governance and human rights concerns in a country where public anger over his controversial rule is near breaking point.
Mugabe argues that Zimbabwe’s political and economic turmoil has been spawned by a bilateral dispute between Zimbabwe and Britain, which emanated from Harare’s decision to seize land forcibly from commercial white farmers, many of them of British descent.
The UN boss was expected to use the visit to Zimbabwe to push for a rescue package for the Southern African country that included substantial economic aid and guarantees to Mugabe that he would not face prosecution for crimes committed while in office — but on condition the 82-year-old president agreed to a timetable to give up power.
The initiative by Annan to pull Zimbabwe out of crisis was said to have had the backing of Britain, the United States and regional power South Africa.
Mugabe frequently brands the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) a puppet party and has said it would be better to talk to Blair, whom he accuses of funding and controlling the MDC. London denies it has influence over the Zimbabwean opposition party.
Buying time
”It would appear that Mugabe has managed to buy himself time again with this initiative,” says John Makumbe, a University of Zimbabwe political-science lecturer and Mugabe critic.
”They [the government] have taken off world pressure but pressure is growing at home, which is where the crux of the matter is,” Makumbe adds, referring to an imploding economy that has seen one of the world’s highest inflation rates, deepening poverty and shortages of foreign currency, fuel and food.
Echoing the views of most analysts, Makumbe expressed scepticism about the outcome of London/Harare mediation by Tanzania’s Mkapa, saying the focus should rather be on bringing Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF party and the MDC to the table to find a negotiated solution to Zimbabwe’s multifaceted crisis.
Opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has ratcheted up pressure against Mugabe by threatening anti-government protests, which the Zimbabwe leader has vowed to crush.
The MDC, which has been weakened by government harassment and internal feuding that culminated in a split into two feuding camps, has been the closest to unseat Mugabe from his long rule. It narrowly lost major elections to the government in 2000 and 2002, which international observers said were seriously flawed.
”I think this [mediation] is a bit misplaced in so far as the Zimbabwe crisis is concerned,” a Harare-based economic analyst says. ”Britain should be the last party to come into the picture of any mediation efforts, which should start here in Zimbabwe,” the analyst adds.
The analyst says the push by Mugabe for talks with London, the last of which collapsed in Abuja, Nigeria, in September 2001, was only because the Zimbabwean leader wanted Western countries to lift up a visa ban on him and his top officials that has rendered them unable to go shopping in European and American cities.
Rescue packages
Last week, Mugabe told mourners at the burial of former information minister Tichaona Jokonya that what Zimbabwe needed to prosper was lifting of Western sanctions and fair treatment, not rescue packages.
But most economic experts differ, saying the country’s recovery prospects lie with a massive economic package from international donors and lenders to kick-start an economy that has been comatose for the past seven years.
”This mediation is not the best platform for solving the problems that the country is facing. It is a diplomatic score by Mugabe who will obviously feel contended by it,” says Eldred Masunungure, head of the University of Zimbabwe’s political-science department.
”[But] there is need for an all-encompassing solution to the Zimbabwe crisis, which takes into account the concerns of the opposition, the ruling party and everyone else … that is an all-inclusive package,” adds Masunungure.
He says that only after such a solution is found, as was originally planned by Annan, can talks with Britain make sense.
Annan had before his weekend meeting with Mugabe publicly said he expected to visit Zimbabwe after failing to take up Harare’s invitation to do so last year.
The European Union, US, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland have for the past four years maintained targeted sanctions against Mugabe; his wife, Grace; and top government officials as punishment for failing to uphold democracy, the rule of law and human rights and for rigging elections.
Mugabe contends the sanctions have had a wider impact beyond himself and his officials, saying the ordinary Zimbabwean is the one suffering the most.
Homeless
Analysts say the issue of Zimbabwe’s refusal of UN help to house thousands of people left homeless by a government slum-clearance campaign appears to have been overtaken by the latest agreement between Annan and Mugabe.
A UN envoy said 700 000 people were left homeless and without a means of livelihood after police bulldozers razed down townships, city backyard cottages and informal business kiosks.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) last month said Zimbabwe was increasingly likely to become a failed state plagued by unrest and violence if the international community did not act to address its deep political and economic crisis.
”It would seem the international community has missed yet another opportunity to help resolve the problems facing Zimbabwe and it is now entirely upon the people here to seek a way out of the crisis,” Makumbe says.
The ICG said Zimbabwe’s political tensions had left Mugabe’s government ”increasingly desperate and dangerous” with no clear plan for resolving the Southern African country’s woes.
Zimbabwe responded by accusing the Brussels-based group of fanning a military coup in the country, a charge the ICG denied.
Dismay
Meanwhile, Zimbabwe’s political opposition and civic groups have expressed dismay that Annan had let Mugabe’s government off the hook by agreeing to call off his visit to Harare.
The National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) civic alliance, which campaigns for a new and democratic Constitution for Zimbabwe, says Annan has allowed himself to be misled by Mugabe that the crisis in the country is because of bilateral disagreements and not mismanagement by the president.
NCA chairperson Lovemore Madhuku says Zimbabweans should expect little from Mkapa’s mediation because the Tanzanian is an ally of Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF party. ”He [Annan] was outmanoeuvred by Mugabe because Mkapa’s initiatives are based on Zanu-PF philosophy.”
Both factions of the splintered MDC are in agreement that mending of soured relations between London and Harare will not resolve the crisis in Zimbabwe, which they say is because of misrule and repression by Mugabe and Zanu-PF.
”The political crisis in Zimbabwe is not a bilateral issue between Zimbabwe and Britain,” says Eliphas Mukonoweshuro, secretary for international affairs of the main faction of the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai. ”Mugabe should have the courage to agree that there is a crisis of governance. Land is not at the core of the Zimbabwean crisis. It’s not because of the land that there is no rule of law.”
The secretary general of the smaller faction of the MDC, Welshman Ncube, describes Mkapa’s mediation as a ”waste of time”, saying the author of Zimbabwe’s crisis is Mugabe and his government and not the British government.
”That [Zimbabwe’s fallout with Britain] is not Zimbabwe’s ailment. They are wasting time. They can have as many mediators as they want and it is not going to work,” says Ncube.
The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions, which has threatened street protests over worsening conditions for workers, says it does not expect much from Mkapa’s efforts, which it dismisses as a ”time-buying tactic by Mugabe”. — ZimOnline