The United States should be prepared to move quickly to pour aid and advisers into Cuba in the event of Fidel Castro’s death, to turn the island away from communist rule, a government report due for release this week will recommend.
The report, the second from a group set up by US President George Bush three years ago to intensify US pressure for regime change in Cuba, calls for $80-million to be put aside to step up opposition to Castro.
It also warns that America’s efforts to bring down the communist system that has governed Cuba since 1959 could be undone by Venezuela’s leftwing leader, Hugo Chávez, who could use his oil wealth to try to continue Cuba’s leftwing legacy.
Draft copies of the report from the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, which is chaired by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, were leaked to the US media ahead of its expected release. The bulk of its recommendations focuses on America’s strategy in the event of the Cuban leader’s death or incapacitation. Unlike previous recommendations, parts of the report were classified for security reasons, bringing accusations of US interference.
”What’s most important is that they admit to a secret plan to overthrow another government,” the president of the Cuban Parliament, Ricardo Alarcón, told reporters in Havana. ”What on earth could the secret part say when the public part violates all kinds of international law?”
The report calls for $80-million to be spent over two years to ”increase support for Cuban civil society, expand international awareness, break the regime’s information blockade and continue developing assistance initiatives to help Cuban civil society realise a democratic transition”, the Miami Herald reported. The funds would be spent on anti-Castro radio and television broadcasts, academic exchanges, and support for the Cuban opposition and post-Castro transition plans.
After the initial two years, the commission calls for $20-million a year to be spent ”until the dictatorship ceases to exist”.
The US, with its large and politically influential community of Cuban exiles in Florida, has maintained an economic embargo on Cuba for more than 40 years, but its hopes for regime change now appear largely limited to waiting for Castro to die. He turns 80 next month, but has shown no sign of retiring. He has designated his brother, Raúl, as successor, deepening speculation about the transition in the event of his death.
”The US government will need to be prepared well in advance to help in the event assistance is requested by the Cuban transition government,” the report says. It calls for the US to be prepared to bring in technical assistance within two weeks of Castro’s death, and suggests Cuban exiles could play a pivotal role in the transition.
However, Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, argues that the group’s recommendations arrive at a time when Washington’s power over the region is waning. The rise to power in Venezuela of Chávez in 1999 and in Bolivia of Evo Morales last year have produced two important allies for Castro.
”The United States is uniquely isolated in Latin America today,” he said. ”Cuba is no longer on the margin of events.” – Guardian Unlimited Â