While listed property recorded a whopping 38% growth last year, it has fallen by 22,8% since reaching a peak on May 5 this year, prompting investors to reconsider this investment avenue.
However, Mariette Warner, head of property funds at Stanlib, South Africa’s largest unit trust company, said further big knocks in the coming weeks are unlikely and an upgrade is on the cards. She says that over the next year, a recovery is more likely than another crash and there is reason to believe listed property will outperform both equities and bonds.
“At one stage in recent weeks, 22% was knocked off values in the listed property market, but those who took the full impact have more to gain by sitting tight than moving out,” says Warner.
“Sitting tight is a smart move when a sell-off has been overdone. It’s too late now to head for the exits. The major damage started after May 10 when the flight from the category began.
“When a market loses a fifth of its value in a few days, there are usually bargain opportunities in the immediate aftermath,” says Warner.
According to Stanlib the suspicion that good value now exists in listed property was confirmed in early July when signs of institutional buying became apparent.
Warner is not unduly concerned that the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets again in early August and another opportunity for a rate rise is on the cards.
She notes: “If logic prevails, even two more 0,5% rate rises would cause a wobble rather than a freefall. History suggests the 22% loss after a relatively modest rise was a significant over-reaction.”
In March 1998, the prime rate went up 3% and listed property declined by 35%. In June 2006, rates went up by just 0,5% yet listed property retreated by an apparently disproportionate 22%.
“That is either blind panic or most of the bad news of further rate rises in 2006 has been priced into the market well ahead of time,” said Warner.
“My conclusion is that limited downside risk is counter-balanced by solid upside potential. So, if you’ve already taken the pain, why not hang around for the gain?”
“The forward yield for the next 12 months is 9%, a tad higher than bonds and a lot higher than cash left on call at the bank,” says Warner.
However, she cautions listed property fans not to expect performance to last forever.
Since peaking in early April, property unit trusts, meanwhile, have lost 24% and this has prompted further concern among unit trust investors. The prospects across the board for residential property are down to just 6,5% in June according to Standard Bank’s latest research, with prospects of going to 0% until a slower growth phase kicks in.
However, most analysts go along with the view that with equity markets taking a pounding, listed property could still offer potential. Rentals in some prime units in the industrial sector have been recorded up 25% in the past year and office and industrial vacancies have continued to fall throughout the country. Building costs are now expected to push up rents even further.
Large investors like insurers, pension funds and listed property funds prefer commercial properties to residential because they are larger and with fewer tenants, which make them easier to manage.
Shops, offices and factories are the prime components of commercial property with hotels, cinemas and wholly-owned blocks of residential flats are secondary components. ‒ I-Net Bridge