The Chadian Army is stepping up reinforcements in the east of the country as it struggles to deal with rebels intent on overthrowing President Idriss Déby Itno.
An upsurge in attacks in the past few weeks has left hundreds of soldiers dead and wounded, and counter-offensives launched by Déby’s men have failed to quell the rebellion.
The most recent attempt to inflict losses on the rebels backfired spectacularly when government troops fell into an ambush in Hadjer Meram, in south-eastern Chad last Sunday.
The army lost its second most senior commander, General Moussa Seugui, in the battle as well as dozens of other soldiers. Observers fear this latest upsurge in violence could prove disastrous for Chad’s relations with neighbouring Sudan, and warn the conflict could engulf this region of central Africa.
Chad has repeatedly accused Sudan of backing the rebels, and last weekend publicly announced that Khartoum had bombed four villages in eastern Chad, a charge Sudan staunchly denied.
During the past few months of summer rains, Chad has had relative peace. But now the rains have finished and the seasonal rivers have dried out, allowing rebels in trademark Toyota pick-ups to begin roaming the region again.
Fighting between government troops and rebels began with renewed intensity in October, and already relations with Sudan appear to have hit rock bottom. Chad cut diplomatic ties with Sudan back in April after a rebel attack on the capital N’Djamena, but resumed an uneasy truce with Khartoum in August.
But now the two neighbours have begun trading accusations once again, and with both Sudanese President Omar Al-Bachir and Déby openly backing rebels trying to bring down the other’s government, observers fear a proxy war could begin.
”In Chad a strong, well-organised rebellion, backed by China and Sudan, is pitched against a weak, divided national army with military support from the French,” a diplomatic source told the Mail & Guardian.
”On the other hand, the rebels in Sudan have support from Déby as well as Europe but are weaker, and they face a strong, united army led by Al-Bachir, who enjoys popular support from his troops. There is no predicting how things will turn out, but the only certainty is that the next few months will see more violence.”
Humanitarian actors are alarmed that the conflict has resumed so quickly after the end of the rains. They say that as long as peace in Sudan’s Darfur region remains elusive, widespread instability will continue to plague this region.
Violence from Darfur has been spilling into Chad for more than six months. Eastern Chad and Darfur share the same ethnic make-up, and Janjaweed attacks and related insecurity have already displaced more than 50 000 Chadians.
”The Janjaweed are clearly linked to the rebellion,” said a leader from the region of Dar Sila, which has been victim of most of the cross-border ethnic violence.
”The Janjaweed is an Arab alliance from Sudan intent on killing Negroes, and they are profiting as rebels move across the porous Chad-Sudan border to capture territory and put pressure on Déby,” he added.
The president has survived several rebellions during his 16-year reign. The group behind the latest clashes, the Union Force for Democracy and Development (UFDD), is a newly formed alliance comprising Mahamat Nouri, a Gorane who defected from his post as ambassador to Saudi Arabia to join the rebellion three months ago, as well as Acheikh Ibn Oumar, an Arab who was formerly a minister in Déby’s government.
In addition to UFDD, several other rebel groups are also waiting in the wings to take power should Déby be ousted, and observers agree any transition of power in this central African nation will be far from smooth.
”This Gorane-Arab alliance is not a natural one, and if Déby is overthrown the alliance will fall apart,” said another diplomatic source. ”On top of this, there are other ethnic groups who head up rebel groups including the Tama and the Zaghawa, Déby’s own clan, who will want their share of the pie. There is a high risk of civil war.”
In another alarming development, Central African Republic (CAR), which borders both Chad and Sudan, also looks like it could now be swept into the conflict. Observers have been warning for months that CAR could become engulfed by the violence, and alarm bells were ringing this week after news that rebels who took the northern Central African town of Birao apparently launched their attack from Sudan.
CAR was implicated in the Chad-Sudan crisis back in April, when rebels crossed from Sudan into CAR to launch an attack on southern Chad. CAR’s President Francois Bozize and Déby are close allies, with Chad reportedly backing Bozize’s rise to power in a coup in 2003. Should CAR join Chad against Sudan, there is no telling where the conflict could lead.