South Africa is expected to play a significant role at the United Nations conference in Nairobi during the next two weeks in charting a future for reducing climate change.
About 6Â 000 delegates at the Nairobi talks will discuss ways of extending the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 deadline, as well as looking for ways to help developing countries adapt to climate change.
Last week a report compiled by respected British economist Nicholas Stern warned that a “business as usual” model could result in temperatures rising by 5C above pre-industrial levels, threatening current standards of living in the developed world and worsening those in developing countries.
South Africa is to push for greater emission reductions by developed countries as well as promoting sustainable development initiatives and climate change mitigation for developing countries.
At last year’s conference in Montreal, South African government negotiators helped to facilitate an agreement to launch negotiations on a second phase of Kyoto, which would begin in 2013. The current Kyoto agreement requires signatories to reduce emissions by 2012. But there is currently no framework for continued reductions beyond that year.
The key task of the Nairobi conference is to make progress in negotiating the extension and strengthening of the Kyoto Protocol. Under Kyoto 37 developed countries, known as Annexe 1 countries, are legally bound to reach emission-reduction targets between 2008 and 2012.
Although the parties reached an agreement in principle to discuss an extension of Kyoto beyond 2012, this is not a binding agreement.
Richard Worthington, a member of South Africa’s Climate Action Network, who is participating in the conference, said the Nairobi meeting will revolve around “setting a process in motion to agree on a mandate to negotiate the whole package of the 2012 treaty”.
“We don’t expect the negotiations in Nairobi to have the same make-or-break decisions as in Montreal last year,” Worthington said.
“And although we are pushing for a mandate for next year, we are not optimistic that it will be reached by that time. But at the same time this meeting is also about doing something.”
According to article nine of the existing Kyoto Protocol, the 165 ratifying countries must start negotiating in Nairobi about an extension of Kyoto and the details of policies.
South Africa believes the “article nine review” should be limited in scope and focus on upscaling adaptation actions and addressing barriers to the transfer of and access to technology.
Worthington believes one of the biggest challenges at the conference will be to get the developing countries such as Brazil on board. At the moment these countries don’t want to commit to the terms of an extension on Kyoto and to reduce their own emissions until Annexe 1 countries do more to meet their targets.
Other worries are that countries such as Canada have slipped towards a more US-based Kyoto policy, where they do not want to commit any further on reducing emission targets.
South Africa will also jointly chair the broad Kyoto “dialogue” that will take place next week. Even though this dialogue does not have the authority to put forward a framework, it was started last year to draw the world’s biggest polluter, the US, which is currently not part of Kyoto, into an international emissions-control regime.
At the moment the South African delegation chairs the G77 and China group, which negotiates as a bloc. But this group is far from homogenous and critics have pointed out that there are a lot of “free riders” who are shirking their responsibilities to meet climate change obligations.
Although some countries might start breaking ranks at the Nairobi conference, it is expected that South Africa, as chair, will try to keep the group cohesive.