Having just been given yet another year in office — albeit with slightly diluted powers — Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo is quickly becoming Africa’s Houdini.
Until mid year, the chance that Gbagbo would be given a second extension of his already prolonged mandate was considered unlikely. However, this is exactly what African leaders eventually called for and what the United Nations Security Council agreed to when it passed Resolution 1721 late last month.
That resolution transfers some of Gbagbo’s powers to the unelected prime minister, former central banker Charles Konan Banny, who was installed last December — by presidents Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and Thabo Mbeki — in the hope that he would be able to drive the peace process which was due to culminate in elections on October 31.
While the latest resolution gives Konan Banny powers to pass laws and decrees without consulting Gbagbo, at France’s insistence it was watered down to preclude Konan Banny from making top civilian and military appointments. This reduces the prime minister’s ability to remove the major obstacles towards a lasting peace.
The first of these obstacles is the outstanding disarmament of the government-supported militias. The need for this was again illustrated when five people died in Abidjan this week after a mob attacked and set alight two militiamen accused of racketeering and intimidating the population.
Residents of the area said this would not have happened if the militiamen from the Grouping of Patriots for Peace (GPP) did not enjoy official government protection which created a climate of impunity among Gbagbo’s violent followers.
Konan Banny’s second major task is to resolve the question of who gets Ivorian nationality, an issue which has so far delayed the identification and registration of voters. Gbagbo’s predecessor Henri Konan Bedie used it to prevent his main political opponent, Allasane Ouatarra from running against him because one of Ouatarra’s parents was born outside Côte d’Ivoire. The question of citizenship has long been a means of preventing opposition candidates and supporters from participating in the electoral process. Residents of the predominantly Muslim north have accused government militias of deliberately destroying their identity documents.
Meanwhile, Gbagbo was triumphant after Resolution 1721 was passed, celebrating what he says is its support for the Constitution, which his opponents want to scrap. However, Gbagbo is already undermining the latest resolution, vowing to respect only those parts of it that do not conflict with the Constitution. Observers fear this could put him on a collision course with Konan Banny over issues important to the peace process.
There are already growing signs of public disenchantment with Gbagbo’s intransigence. In recent months his stubborn attitude has been ascribed to the South African mediation’s bias in his favour. Mbeki took on the role of mediator at the behest of the African Union after leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) ran out of patience with Gbagbo’s stalling tactics. Now Ivorians will have to come to terms with the fact that they are dealing with a man who is both able and determined to hang on to power against all odds.
Already opposition parties are urging civil society groups to shun consultations called by Gbagbo this week ostensibly to plot the way forward. The umbrella Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RNDP) dismisses Gbagbo’s call for consultations as a ”grotesque masquerade” and yet another stalling tactic.
The RNDP points out that according to the past agreements Konan Banny, not Gbagbo, should be steering the peace process. The Rally of Republicans (RDR) also chided Gbagbo for going against the spirit of the council resolution, adding that any talks the president might call would not reflect the reality on the ground.
The RDR continues to push for Gbagbo to be removed, for the government to be placed in the hands of a high council and for the Constitution to be suspended. The Forces Nouvelle (FN) rebel group, which has run the north of the country since it split after a failed coup in 2002, continues to press for Gbagbo to be ousted.
Nevertheless, the FN welcomed the provision in Resolution 1721 that command of the military be split between the government and the rebels.