Scrutinising RAMS reports tends to elicit all the expectant anxiety of awaiting a Christmas present from your maiden aunt. Your heart is filled with expectation — a new iPod? — a diving watch? — but your perennial brush with reality prepares you for the inevitable. When you open the wrapping, it is with a Jake Whitean air of resignation that you once again confront the inevitable. A 12-month subscription to the Reader’s Digest.
You know it’s well intentioned. You know it’s dependable. But it’s not the same as finding out that someone has discovered three new planets and that consequently, you have received a free cosmic upgrade.
Whilst the third wave RAMS 2006 release has highlighted the normal winners and snoozers, the overall impression gleaned is of a radio industry desperately in need of discovering a couple of new planets itself or a least a shooting star or two.
Fieldwork was conducted in two parts, from mid-March to mid-May 2006 and again from mid-May to end-June 2006. The continued application of the flooding technique in major metros, cities and large towns, which effectively means that in addition to placing a diary with the main respondent, supplementary diaries are completed by all other adult members of the household, has yielded a total of 18,156 diaries over the two fieldwork waves.
Despite this, the alarm bells ring when one attempts to evaluate data at the average ¼ hour level. Many major radio stations have Av. ¼ hour respondent levels that fall below the South African Advertising and Research Foundation’s (SAARF) own recommended minimums, even in prime time. So what happens when you do a radio scheduling plan? GIGO. And that’s not the name of one of our new planets.
It would not be unreasonable to enquire of broadcasters just what benefit they derive from the increased frequency of RAMS diaries and whether the needs of the marketplace wouldn’t be better served by fewer diaries with larger samples that allow for more robust interrogation. After all, listenership patterns simply do not evidence the volatility and seasonal variation which was the catalyst for more frequent publication of RAMS data in the first place.
In July 2005 consumers listened to radio for 4h36m daily. In August 2006 they listened for 4h38m. Radio audiences show a marginal decline of 0.3 percent from the previous period, against the backdrop of an 0.3 percent increase year on year [YoY]. It’s like sitting on the beach at Margate, clutching your Loerie and watching the tidal ebb and flow.
More disappointing is the seeming stagnation of community radio which has been eroded by minus 1.6 percent over the last RAMS period, despite the early promise of the 14.3 percent increase in November 2005. Despite this pattern, it is still significant to note that one in five radio listeners in South Africa, also listen to community stations.
On the premise that advertising support follows audiences, one can only conjecture at the advertising industry’s unwillingness to embrace this facet of the radio offering.
For example, mainstream station 702 is down 6,4 percent over the last RAMS period to a 7day audience of 264,000 and “shooting star” Cape Talk 567 (up 15.6 percent over previous RAMS and 16.8 percent YoY) has a past 7day listenership of only 111,000.
On the other end of the radio universe, relatively unknown satellite community stations consistently evade detection by media astronomers despite solid audience growth. Stations such as Radio Khwezi in KZN have grown (86 percent YoY) with a 7Day listenership of 329,000 and Radio Tygerberg 104 FM in the Western Cape (292,000 7day listeners).
There is more chance of getting the average radio buyer to position 2003UB313 in our expanded solar system than to successfully position Sekgosese Community Radio (7day listenership of 260,000) or Nkqubela Community Radio (7day listenership of 219,000), both of which stations have considerably more listeners than Radio 2000 which has declined 8,3 percent YoY to a low of 154,000.
To this concern should be added the observation that RAMS community radio data is released with a SAARF health warning that “there are some community radio stations with less than 100 diary keepers in their footprint areas” and that “users must keep these small sample sizes in mind when examining the data”. Any planner that tries to do an evaluation of Av.¼ audience can attest to that fact and this may well explain why community radio stations seem not to be receiving their share of the pie.
Trying to isolate the common thread between the shooting stars and the black holes is equally challenging. Certainly it is noteworthy that the Cape Town market, shows resilience, particularly when considered in conjunction with the growing contribution of community stations such as Radio 786 Voice of the Cape (up 16.9 percent), CCFM (up 5.2 percent), Helderberg (up 6.7 percent) and Zibonele (up 11.9 percent) whilst listenership in Gauteng, continues to decline despite the massive energy in the regional economy.
It certainly makes one wonder just what everybody in The Big Guava is actually doing when they sit in a state of perpetual vehicular gridlock. Somebody has to win so it must be the cellular operators. Nothing like a little bit of “beam me up Scotty” to pass the time. So much for massively overpriced drive-time radio.
One of the areas of greatest concern must continue to be the failure of black radio stations to ignite the imaginations of the black middle class. Overall listenership to black stations has declined by 0.4 percent over the last measured RAMS period and 7.3 percent YoY.
In particular the declining franchise of the SABC African Language Stations is a source of major concern. Average decline is 0.8 percent over the previous RAMS period, little more than stagnation at a glance, but viewed in conjunction with the more significant 5.8 percent decline YoY and it is clear that the need for re-engineering in this sector is critical.
In the era of personalised cellphone ringtones and home ripped CD compilations, it is hard to understand the justification for a radio station the size of Ukhozi FM (down 1.8 percent to 6,2 million listeners) attempting to offer advertisers a one stop shop for consumers from The Zone in Rosebank to outer reaches of rural KwaZulu-Natal. Other, of course, than the peculiar reason that the vernacular stations were created 40 years ago, and surely its time to change that?
This is not an argument for a reduction in ALS stations but rather an appeal for their reformulation and regeneration in a new and exciting format. With the exception of Josi FM (down 17.4 percent to 410,000), the continued migration of listeners to youth stations such as Metro (up 1.7 percent), Kaya FM (up 1.3 percent) and Yfm (up 0.8 percent) confirms the need for this evolution if the ALS stations are not to be completely eroded in urban areas.
The search for new worlds and exciting life forms continues apace but they won’t be found in RAMS. The reliability of latest RAMS data is mildly reassuring, but its not exactly cosmic news.