Between now and 2025, about 22 700 new passenger and freight aircraft valued at $2,6-trillion will be required by aircraft operators, according to the latest Airbus global market forecast.
This represents an increase of about 5 400 aircraft compared with the previous forecast, Airbus noted.
Of the newly produced airliners, Airbus forecasts that about 21 900 new passenger aircraft of more than 100 seats will be needed, creating an average delivery close to 1 100 passenger aircraft per year, up from about 800 two years ago.
This requirement results from an average annual traffic growth in revenue passenger kilometres of 4,8%, leading to passenger traffic growth of about 2,5 times and an increase in the world aircraft fleet of about 14 600 aircraft, it said.
Airbus added that the period will be marked by an increasing demand for new, more fuel-efficient airliners, to help address airline operating costs as well as environmental concerns. This factor will lead to a higher replacement rate of more than 12 000 aircraft.
“Over the next 20 years the number of passenger aircraft will more than double. Since 2000, new operators as well as strong economic growth, especially in emerging economies, has fuelled expansion of nearly 30% in available seats,” said John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer: customers.
“This trend is continuing with the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow to a third of the worldwide market by 2025,” he added.
Transpacific, Europe to Asia, and transatlantic long-haul routes will increase by 60%, Airbus predicted.
Meanwhile, hub cities will see their traffic nearly doubling over the next 10 years. New, larger aircraft will enable airlines to maximise profit potential as well address environmental and airport congestion constraints.
In the very large aircraft sector, Airbus predicts a demand for 1 660 aircraft valued at $503-billion or 20% of total sales value, of which about 1 260 are new passenger aircraft. Asia-Pacific will account for 56% of these, it said.
The top 20 airport hubs will account for more than two-thirds of the world’s destinations of very large aircraft. In addition, there will be a demand for about 400 aircraft over 120 tonnes of payload from the very large freighter category.
The requirement for twin-aisle passenger aircraft will continue to grow strongly with about 5 300 new twin-aisle aircraft being delivered in the next two decades. This makes up for about 42% of the total value of all passenger aircraft delivered. The largest segment will be in the 250- and 300-seater market with a need for about 3 750 new aircraft.
More than 70% of all aircraft delivered within the next 20 years will be single-aisle types, which translates into more than 15 300 aircraft or 42% by value of all passenger-aircraft delivery. Single-aisle aircraft demand will be highest in Europe and North America; in Asia, the low-cost market is expected to quintuple its fleet from 236 to more than 1,300 by 2025.
“This forecast shows that aviation is a strong growth industry and one which is also vital for the development of the world economy,” Leahy concluded. — I-Net Bridge