Last year audiences gasped at Al Gore’s climate-change documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. There was no blood and only a little Gore and for the most part just hard, scary facts. What can South Africans expect from a world whose climate is rapidly changing? The Mail & Guardian foresees stormy weather ahead.
Our climate
It is time to get out the sunblock, wherever you live in South Africa. Our country is getting warm as toast. East-coasters would be wise to build their houses far from rivers and flood plains, while those in the west will have to cut down on water use.
According to Leonie Joubert, author of Scorched: South Africa’s Changing Climate, summer temperatures are due to rise between 0,5 and four degrees Celsius in the next few decades.
She also predicts that droughts will intensify in the west, while floods will increase in the east. The Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism’s national climate-change response strategy report also warns that floods might increase.
A Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) report, released last year, on how climate change is affecting Durban, predicted that the city’s maximum temperature will rise by three degrees Celsius and minimum temperatures by four degrees by 2070.
Durban will also experience longer periods without rain followed by short periods of intense showers, which means more floods. In the Western Cape there will be less winter rainfall and more summer rainfall, with a drying trend from east to west, according to a study by the South African Biodiversity Institute. The mercury here will also be climbing steadily.
Water resources
Water is becoming scarcer. Much of the country is arid or semi-arid and is constantly subjected to droughts and floods, which will only worsen.
South Africa’s weather service says it is a known fact that higher temperatures will influence rainfall. ‘It could increase in some parts of the country, and decrease in other parts,†the service says.
Our water supplies are largely stored in dams and interbasin water transfer schemes. ‘South Africa’s rainfall is already highly variable in spatial distribution and unpredictable, both within and between years,†the environmental department says in its climate change report, adding that a reduction in the amount or reliability of rainfall, or an increase in evaporation will worsen the lack of surface and ground water resources.
Desertification, which is already a problem in South Africa, will be further exacerbated by climate change, scientists warn.
Biodiversity
South Africa has about 10% of all of the world’s plant species, of which about half are endemic. But, warns climate change expert Harold Winkler from the University of Cape Town, the viability of key ecosystems is put at risk by a temperature change of only one to two degrees Celsius.
Conservationists are particularly concerned about the Cape floral kingdom, which is at risk because of increasing temperatures and a change in the rainfall pattern. The South African Biodiversity Institute study says in a worst-case scenario up to 30% of the region’s floral treasure might be lost.
Health
Your grandchildren are likely to battle malaria, even if they live in Johannesburg. In the government’s projected climate-change scenarios, malaria is expected to flourish. A rise in temperature, even if it is small, will allow malaria to spread into cooler parts of the country.
Skin cancer is another major concern as is the expected increase in water-borne diseases as a result of floods.
Agriculture
Just less than three-quarters of total grain production in South Africa consists of maize. In a hotter, drier climate, maize production will decrease by up to 20%, mostly in the drier western regions. But changing rainfall and climate patterns might also sound a death knell for speciality crops such as apples and wine, which are grown in environmentally favourable areas such the Western Cape.
Grazing will come under pressure as the country becomes more arid, especially where overgrazing is already taking place. Even though higher carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere will make grass grow faster, it will contain less protein. As the number of trees increases as a result of a higher concentration of carbon dioxide, they will start to move into grassland areas. The department predicts that fire outbreaks will increase significantly.
Coastal zones
Think twice about building your dream house on the coast. Your children might inherit nothing more than a watery ruin. Scientists have warned, in several reports, that continued global warming will lead to a 7m rise in sea level in the next 1Â 000 years. South Africa’s coastline is relatively steep, but coastal cities such as Durban have already started to plan ahead.
The CSIR report on Durban’s changing climate predicts that the sea level will rise by an average of 4,5cm every 10 years, suggesting that it will have risen by almost half a metre by 2100.
A climate-change assessment report for the Western Cape, tabled before the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, warned that the greater Cape Town metropole, the Southern Cape, Port Elizabeth, the KwaZulu-Natal South Coast and Durban might also be vulnerable.
Fisheries
South Africa’s fisheries are swimming into murky water. Already variation in ocean currents has caused major changes in several fish resources. The department of environmental affairs says the predicted rise in sea surface temperature will result in the migration of species residing along the coast.
Changes in sea temperatures could also lead to alterations in near-shore currents, which would have a significant impact on rocky shore ecosystems. Studies have indicated that there would be an increase in the occurrences of the harmful ‘red tide†events on the west coast which cause mass mortalities among marine life and other animals.
10 WAYS TO BATTLE CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Recycle, recycle, recycle
South Africans are not big on recycling — there is no legislation in place to compel South Africans to collect cans and paper and separate glass from plastic. You can save 1Â 100kg of carbon dioxide per year by recycling half of your waste.
2. Be energy efficient
Switch off electrical appliances when you aren’t using them and use less hot water. A low-flow showerhead saves 160kg of carbon dioxide a year. Switch to energy-saving light bulbs. Adjusting your geyser down a few degrees can save 800kg of carbon dioxide.
3. Cool down without the guilt
Instead of air conditioners use fans. But if it is simply too hot to go out without air conditioning, clean the filter monthly and switch it off in winter.
4. Reduce your rubbish
Take your own shopping bag to shop, every time. Avoid products with lots of packaging. You can save 550kg of carbon dioxide if you cut down your garbage by 10%.
5. Plant more indigenous trees
Trees are carbon sinks. One tree will absorb one tonne of carbon dioxide during its lifetime.
6. Eat more simply
The more complicated and ready-made foodstuffs are, the heavier they are on the planet. Microwave-ready food uses up to 10 times more resources than normal food. Eat food grown or produced close to home. The typical mouthful of food now travels at least 2Â 000km to your mouth, with all the energy that it takes to get there.
7. Use public transport
Although middle-class South Africans are notorious avoiders of public transport, the one-passenger car leaves a fairly large carbon footprint. Bicycles and walking are still the most energy-efficient way of getting around. You save 0,5 kg of carbon dioxide for every kilometre you don’t drive.
8. Create eco-kids
Teach kids about their carbon footprint and encourage responsible behaviour from early on.
9. Get a green car
Every 10 litres of petrol that are unused save 9kg of carbon dioxide from being pumped into the atmosphere. Keeping your tyres inflated properly can improve your kilometres on a tank by up to 3%. Also, if your vehicle is not regularly serviced, noxious gases and particulates will be emitted.
10. See more of South Africa
Environmentalists are concerned about how much carbon dioxide aeroplanes are offloading into the atmosphere. So explore beautiful South Africa. — Yolandi Groenewald, with assistance from Fiona Macleod and WWF-SA