President Thabo Mbeki addressed the governing African National Congress (ANC) on Saturday to mark its 95th anniversary, at the start of what is likely to be his last year as party leader, which likely will see the volume turned up in the debate over who will succeed him.
Mbeki is expected to step down as head of the party at its conference in December. Past form suggests that the new party leader will be the ANC’s presidential nominee and the nation’s next leader after Mbeki’s second and final term ends in 2009.
”This is the year in which the proverbial fork-in-the-road scenario comes into play. How the ANC resolves the succession debate, or fails to resolve it, will have incredible ramifications for the country for a long time to come,” said political commentator Xolela Mangcu. ”Everything is at stake.”
Mbeki did not reveal much about the succession debate in his address. He and other top leaders insist there is no dissension, and the speech and birthday rally in Witbank, east of Johannesburg, was an occasion to make a show of unity — as when Mbeki and dismissed deputy president Jacob Zuma stood together to cut a cake on January 8, the date the ANC was founded in 1912.
On Saturday, in front of a cheering crowd of about 20 000 dressed in bright yellow T-shirts, Mbeki and Zuma danced, sang and toasted the party with champagne in an unusual show of camaraderie between the two men.
”This is an important day for all the people of South Africa because, as happened at last year’s local government elections, our people showed that they have the greatest confidence in the ANC. They put the ANC in government and therefore what the ANC says and does is of direct interest to them,” Mbeki said.
Divisions
The past few years have seen deep divisions emerge among the ANC and its allies over who should be at the helm of Africa’s economic powerhouse and its political and economic direction.
The crisis came to a head last year in a bitter battle that pitched Mbeki, regarded as part of the ANC elite, against the populist Zuma.
Mbeki fired Zuma in June 2005 after he was implicated in a case of fraud and corruption over a multimillion-rand arms deal. Charges against Zuma were thrown out on a technicality this year. Prosecutors have not ruled out pushing ahead with a fresh case.
Zuma, a 64-year-old former guerrilla leader, also was acquitted in May last year of raping a family friend. He successfully argued the sex was consensual, though admissions on the stand that he had unprotected sex with her even though he knew she was HIV-positive raised questions about his judgement.
Zuma and his supporters in the unions, the South African Communist Party and the leftist ANC Youth League have insisted that he is the victim of a political plot intended to derail his ambitions to become the country’s next president.
South Africans complain that Mbeki’s market-oriented economics have not brought the promised investment and improvements for the impoverished majority still waiting to enjoy the gains of black rule nearly 13 years after the end of apartheid.
While there is no limit on how long the president of the ANC can serve, it is unlikely that Mbeki will enter the race. Recently he has been booed during public events — on one such occasion, Zuma had to intervene to calm the crowd.
Compromise
The struggle has tarnished the party’s reputation and left both leaders weakened. Concerns have been raised about further bloodletting. The solution could be a compromise candidate acceptable to both the Mbeki and Zuma camps.
Reports that ANC politician turned mining magnate Tokyo Sexwale was holding talks with high-level party members from both camps were denied this week by Sexwale’s spokesperson. But the former Robben Island prisoner who starred in the role of Donald Trump in a South African version of The Apprentice is still considered a front-runner.
Another possibility is Cyril Ramaphosa, a former ANC chief negotiator who now heads a successful business empire.
Others touted include Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe. Mbeki has said he thinks a woman should be seriously considered, focusing attention on Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a close Mbeki ally.
In line with the reconciliatory mood, Mbeki called for a strengthening of party structures. He dismissed claims that the party’s alliance with its trade union and communist partners was unraveling.
”Now more than ever we are called upon to build and strengthen the alliance … to demonstrate unity of purpose and action in advancing the goals we set ourselves,” he said, reading extracts from the party’s annual national executive committee statement, which outlines the party’s tasks in the year ahead.
Mbeki said that eradicating poverty will be the party’s priority in the years ahead of its centenary.
”In the last 12-and-a-half years we have seen the frontiers of poverty steadily being pushed back. In 2007 we must do everything possible to make certain that we achieve further advances,” he said. — Sapa-AP