International sanctions alone will not prevent Iran making enough high-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, according to an internal European Union study leaked on Tuesday.
The United Nations has imposed sanctions banning transfers of technology and know-how to Iran’s nuclear programme and hinting at broader penalties if Tehran has not halted nuclear work within 60 days, by February 21.
Iran says its programme is aimed at electricity production. The United States suspects Tehran’s goal is nuclear weapons.
”Attempts to engage the Iranian administration in a negotiating process have not so far succeeded,” said the report, whose contents were summarised to Reuters by EU diplomats.
”In practice … the Iranians have pursued their programme at their own pace, the limiting factor being technical difficulties rather than resolutions by the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.
”At some stage we must expect that Iran will acquire the capacity to enrich uranium on the scale required for a weapons programme … The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone.”
EU governments commissioned the ”reflection paper” from EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana to assess the effectiveness of their twin-track approach of sanctions and dialogue with Tehran.
The diplomats disputed the interpretation of the Financial Times, which first revealed the study, that it concluded it was too late to stop the programme.
”The study does not conclude in a position of inevitability. What we don’t like is the implication that sanctions are not going to work and that we are [therefore] contemplating military action,” said one diplomat.
Concern but no despair
”Obviously we haven’t succeeded so far in convincing Iran to stop enriching [uranium for nuclear fuel] … But the study finishes with questions, not conclusions, saying, given these circumstances, what [more] can we do,” he said.
”That is far from despairing of a negotiated solution.”
EU diplomats stressed the paper took a broader view, noting that while Iran was geopolitically stronger given the US-led overthrow of foes ruling Afghanistan and Iraq, its economy was deteriorating and could prove vulnerable to sanctions.
EU ministers said on Monday Iran was showing ”new ambition” to negotiate an end to the nuclear row and the door was open for new talks, but they also agreed to implement UN sanctions to keep pressure on Tehran to stop enriching uranium.
The diplomats said the EU had not discussed imposing further sanctions, and banning investment in and export credits to Iran, as some US officials have urged the Europeans to do.
Solana and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier held exploratory talks with Iran’s nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani last weekend, the first such contact since sanctions were imposed on December 23 after previous talks collapsed.
Larijani offered no ideas to bridge the dispute with the West, diplomats said.
”The Munich meetings were relatively cordial. Our door is open,” said the diplomat, alluding to an offer of trade and energy benefits to Iran if it mothballs sensitive nuclear work.
”It would be wrong to say these [meetings with Larijani] were the first in a series of events like this. To get to that point, we would like to see some ideas from Larijani.” — Reuters