The South African nuclear community has taken the government’s recent support for nuclear energy as a cue to plan local uranium enrichment. Processing uranium will secure South Africa’s nuclear fuel supply in the event that the domestic nuclear energy market grows. Experts highlight the soaring price of uranium internationally and project a supply shortage as incentives to process uranium locally.
Department of Public Enterprises Minister Erwin announced on Monday that Eskom would build a second nuclear power station in the Cape. He said the plant would likely contribute more than 1Â 000MW to the country’s baseload capacity.
Koeberg currently contributes about 1Â 800MW of electricity to the national grid, but the bulk of the country’s power generation is located near the country’s coalfields further north.
The preferred bidder will be announced in the first quarter of this year, Erwin reported. The three front-runners include Canadian and French companies.
President Thabo Mbeki voiced the government’s support for nuclear energy in his State of the Nation address last week, saying: “With regard to energy, we will also expedite our work to ensure greater reliance on nuclear power generation, natural gas and the various forms of renewable sources of energy.”
Rob Adam, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa, said Mbeki’s pronouncement was significant given that the country relies on coal for more than 90% of its electricity.
“What [Mbeki’s statement] signifies is a sea change in terms of emphasis in the national energy policy,” said Adam at a nuclear energy conference in Johannesburg.
Adam predicted that South Africa was likely to build another 15 000 to 20 000MW of nuclear energy using conventional nuclear technology and an additional 5 000MW using the pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR) technology that South Africa is currently developing.
CEO Jaco Kriek of the firm PBMR argued that renewed interest in nuclear energy was a global phenomenon. He said 30 nuclear plants are being built in 12 countries around the world and that 100 more plants are being planned.
Adam predicted that the growing global demand for nuclear energy would put pressure on an already tight market in enriched uranium.
He projected steady growth in uranium supply from more than 60Â 000 tons to more than 70Â 000 tons in the next two decades. But, he suggested, a supply shortage exceeding the anticipated growth in uranium demand would be experienced from 2014.
This shortfall could give South Africa the opportunity to enter the relatively concentrated uranium conversion and enrichment industry, he said. Conversion is the step in processing uranium before enrichment.
The “rocketing” price of uranium would make South African production a profitable enterprise, according to Adam. He used figures from a particular uranium compound to illustrate this price hike. From the late 1980s to 2004, the spot price for the uranium compound remained below $20, but has since soared by more than $70 a pound.
Adam predicted that if South Africa built an enrichment plant, it could meet one-third to one-tenth of the anticipated global shortfall in enrichment capacity. He said South Africa could enrich uranium at a cost of about R500 a unit, which compares favourably with the world price of about R990 per unit.
Adam anticipated that South Africa could convert uranium and fabricate fuel from enriched uranium at cost-competitive rates.
South Africa has existing expertise in uranium enrichment from the days when it had an interest in nuclear proliferation, he said.
There are, however, indications that the existing skills base is limited, especially as demand for nuclear skills rises. PBMR and the National Energy Corporation have had to agree not to poach each other’s staff.
Uranium enrichment plants are also relatively energy-intensive, depending on the technology being used.