Nigeria holds a presidential election on Saturday that is widely seen as a democratic watershed for this country and the whole of Africa.
But two days before the vote there are serious doubts over whether it will be seen as a valid, democratic election.
The vote in Africa’s most populous state should usher in the first handover from one civilian president to another in a nation deeply scarred by three decades of military rule.
”If Nigeria works well, so might Africa. If the democratic experiment in Nigeria stalls, the rest of Africa suffers and loses hope,” said Robert Rotberg of the United States Council on Foreign Relations in a special report before the elections.
After state polls last week in which every kind of rigging was observed to keep the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in power and at least 50 people died, the signs are not promising.
Diplomats and observers were dismayed at the extent of the abuses, including the theft of ballot boxes by party thugs, ghost voting, intimidation, and in some cases no polling at all. Now there are fears that if the presidential vote goes the same way, frustration at a stolen election will explode into violence right across this huge country.
Nigerian troops fought a day-long battle with Islamic militants in the volatile northern city of Kano on Wednesday, killing 25 and underlining the potential for more bloodshed — though it is not clear whether there was a link to the election.
The official election commission says the PDP won 27 of 34 state elections and ordered a rerun in two others.
Like President Olusegun Obasanjo, it says the state vote was largely successful.
‘No crisis’
”We are not sitting on any crisis in Nigeria. We were successful completely in 30 states out of 36,” commission spokesperson Philip Umeadi told a news conference on Thursday.
But a respected group of local observers said results in at least 10 states did not reflect the will of the people. Foreign observers also noted major abuses in many places.
A group of 18 opposition parties called on Wednesday for the presidential vote to be postponed, saying it could not be fair after abuses in the state polls, which should be annulled.
But officials in the parties of the two main opposition challengers — former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari and Vice-President Atiku Abubakar — said they would not boycott it.
Obasanjo, whose election in 1999 marked the return to democracy in Nigeria after military rule, must stand down after failing to alter the Constitution to allow a third term.
Once seen as one of Africa’s leading statesmen, Obasanjo’s reputation has been tarnished by his manoeuvres to block arch-rival Abubakar from standing, his failed bid for a third term, and the conduct of the state polls.
The opposition accuses the 70-year-old retired general of massively manipulating the process to retain personal influence, keep the PDP in power and control the gold mine of patronage.
Obasanjo handpicked the PDP candidate, obscure northern governor Umaru Yar’Adua. The opposition calls him a puppet.
Although the PDP is expected to coast to victory because of its huge funds and powers of incumbency, many Nigerians believe Buhari would win a free vote, exploiting anger at the theft of public funds by politicians and rising insecurity.
Buhari, a stern northern Muslim, is seen as an uncorrupted disciplinarian who would restore order to chaotic Nigeria.
His two years of iron-fisted military rule in the 1980s are remembered for his austerity measures, the jailing of corrupt politicians and the execution of drug traffickers. – Reuters