President Thabo Mbeki’s bid to broker a political settlement in ZimbabÂwe could be an uphill battle, given this week’s insistence by President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF that there can be no talks before the opposition changes its ways.
An official in the Zanu-PF’s information department, privy to the party’s deliberations on Mbeki’s initiative, said the thinking in the party is that ‘elections are around the corner, and people will do their talking through the ballot, not over a table with the oppositionâ€.
In the party’s official mouthpiece, the People’s Voice, Zanu-PF spokesperson Nathan Shamuyarira said this week that the opposition should change ‘its stance on national issues†and plead with the Western countries to lift international sanctions before any dialogue could take place.
Lovemore Madhuku, whose pressure group National Constitutional Assembly is agitating for a new Constitution, reinforced the scepticism. ‘We knew these talks were never going to succeed, it is Mugabe’s technique of buying time.
‘Mbeki will never be allowed to play his expected role by Zanu-PF. The tone of Mugabe’s speech during independence celebrations said it all. They don’t want to negotiate with the opposition.â€
Madhuku added that Mugabe had agreed to negotiate with the opposition at the SADC summit only because he waited to avoid further alienating the grouping’s presidents.
Marking independence celebrations on Wednesday, Mugabe returned to his vitriolic style, accusing the opposition of being ‘shameless local puppets†used by Western powers to ‘effect a regime change†and ‘criminal elements†spreading anarchy.
‘Clearly that’s not the language of someone interested in dialogue,†said Madhuku.
The pronouncements by Mugabe and his lieutenants have generated concern that Mbeki, even when acting with an SADC mandate, could encounter the same resistance from Zanu-PF he has experienced in trying to mediate in his capacity as South Africa’s president.
Writing online from London, Zimbabwean journalist Mtulisi Mathuthu said Mbeki should try to understand Mugabe’s character. ‘The genuine Mugabe comes out naturally; [he is] a volcanic, sabre-rattling and quarrelsome loner with a frosty inner weather, more ready to fight and ‘crush’ than to chatter a discourse,†Mathuthu wrote.
Mbeki’s team, headed by Provincial and Local Government Affairs Minister Sydney Mufamadi, has met the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and will this week meet civic groups to gather information on the best way forward.
In a joint document submitted to Mbeki, the opposition has demanded a new Constitution to level the electoral framework they believe is tilted in favour of the ruling Zanu-PF party.
‘The opposition will never get a new Constitution,†said the Zanu official. ‘What the party will concede to are amendments to controversial pieces of legislation such as the media laws, the public order Act and the electoral laws,†he said.
But the opposition remains optimistic. Said Priscilla ÂMisihairambwi-Mushonga, MDC deputy spokesperson: ‘I’m reasonably optimistic we’ll find a solution. I don’t think Mugabe can run away from this.â€
The Mail & Guardian has learnt that Mbeki has written letters to Mugabe and the two leaders of the MDC formations, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, asking for a clear commitment to dialogue.
The opposition has responded positively. But according to party insiders, Mugabe will make it clear that he has to be recognised as a legitimate leader and demand the lifting of sanctions before negotiations can take place.