They were not the only foreigners avoiding the Niger Delta. International election observers stayed away as well — all but a small group from the Institute for a Democratic South Africa, which deployed observers to two of the area’s states, Rivers and Bayelsa. The European Union, one of the largest election observer missions in the country, had declared weeks earlier that it would not deploy observers to the area, as the security situation was too volatile.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) announced on Monday that Umaru Yar’Adua, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, won the presidential election with 24,6-million votes, with Mohammed Buhari, the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) candidate and former head of state, coming in second place with 6,6-million votes. Buhari is challenging the election results.
Anyakwee Nsirimovu, the director of the Institute for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law, which monitored the election in the Niger Delta region, says the government engaged in a calculated strategy to keep foreign observers out. ”The deliberate raising of tensions in the Delta region just before the elections … meant that international observers failed to appear for reasons of insecurity, which no doubt was good news to the authorities.”
Conflict in the Niger Delta between the Nigerian government and dissatisfied local communities demanding development and enforcement of environmental standards in the oil industry has been simmering since 1995. The Delta is the source of all of Nigeria’s crude oil, which earned the state $45-billion in export revenues in 2005.
The various groups in the region, such as the Ijaw Youth Council and the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (Mosop), which was founded by the slain activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, say they are fighting for better living conditions for the people of the Delta and also demand that the derivation formula, which determines how much money is sent back to the oil-producing Delta states, be increased significantly from its current level of 13%.
In January last year, a new group emerged, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend), which positions itself as an umbrella group for the myriad armed militias in the region. Mend’s strategy of kidnapping foreign oil workers has stepped up pressure on the government and international oil companies operating in the Delta. According to the Inter-national Crisis Group, oil production has dropped 25% since Mend started targeting foreign oil workers.
But the situation here is not as one-dimensional as the militant groups like to present it. While publicly demanding better living conditions for the people of the Delta, many of them stand accused of being guns for hire, mainly for the ruling PDP.
Analysts say the lines between activism and politically sponsored thuggery have become increasingly blurred over the years and that it is now almost impossible to distinguish between the two. ”The groups here are a mix of everything — those who are supporting the struggle and those who are thugs. It is hard to tell with a degree of certainty who is who,” says Ibiba Donpedro, an activist and journalist from the region. ”People in the Ijaw Youth Council and Mosop are working for the real struggle, but less so these days. Many are taking as much money as possible.”
Much of the corruption of the myriad Niger Delta groups started during previous elections in 1999 and 2003, when the groups’ leaders were given money to deliver victories for the PDP.
Observers say that in 2003, Alhaji Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, the leader of the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force, actively supported the victory of the PDP governor of Rivers state, but publicly refused to endorse Obasanjo’s presidential victory. Violence erupted in the aftermath, with the military cracking down in the region and provoking a response from the militias.
In 2004, the government offered Asari amnesty, but he was subsequently arrested on a visit to Abuja and remains in prison there. He has not yet been tried. Asari’s wife, Hajia Mujahidat Dokubo-Asari, told the Mail & Guardian that if her husband dies in detention ”we will make it very uncomfortable. There will be no more oil drilling in the Niger Delta within 48 hours.”
Donpedro says she is not surprised that the new groups that have emerged in the Delta and the strategies they have adopted have become more violent in the past few years, given the conditions in which people live and the government’s apparent refusal to address even the most basic needs of the communities.
Like Donpedro, Nsirimovu fears that the massive fraud experienced during the election will increase tensions in the region. ”I would not be surprised if there were increased violence in the Niger Delta in the next four years. There may be a motivation for peaceful people to resort to other means because they have understood that other means such as the elections won’t help.”
While there were relatively few incidents of violence in the Delta during the presidential election, the massive fraud that tainted the gubernatorial elections also marred the presidential vote. The M&G witnessed intimidation of observers as well as stuffing of ballot boxes at a number of polling stations in the rural areas surrounding Port Harcourt. Voters were unable to vote in secret, as polling booths were missing everywhere and party agents, especially of the ruling PDP, were omnipresent and watching as people placed their thumbprints on the ballots. In some areas, gangs of youth set up roadblocks and prevented electoral officials from delivering election materials to polling stations.
The type of rigging that occurred in the Delta was also reported throughout the country, prompting international observers to question the legitimacy of the elections. Max van den Berg, the leader of the EU observer mission, said: ”These elections have not lived up to the hopes and expectations of the Nigerian people and the process cannot be considered to have been credible.”
Analysts say the fraud will undermine the legitimacy of the Yar’Adua presidency.
There is, however, some hope that the fact that the new Vice-President, Goodluck Jonathan, the former governor of Bayelsa state, is an Ijaw could mean that the problems in the Delta may be addressed.
Donpedro says his candidacy may have been one of the reasons that there was less violence during the elections: ”The last few weeks have been quiet. There was an appeal by Ijaw-speaking people to the youth to hold their fire because of Goodluck’s candidacy. It worked until now, but I don’t know how long it will hold.”